Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Jalen Duren Under 23.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:30 PM CT on ABC
I really hope the Pistons move on today so I can keep fading Duren on this prop. It’s getting a little ridiculous, especially if you’re following the off-court dramatic saga, but I don’t see things improving for him today. In a Game 7 where nerves are maxed out and things get even tighter, being in your own head is a recipe for disaster. It’s also the style of game where there won’t be much opportunity to pile up stats, with these teams having very slow paces and defensive focuses anyway. With a 6-0 mark under this total in the series, a Game 7 should be just a continuation of Duren’s struggles.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers Team Total Over 109.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on NBC
I’m just sticking with the trends here of Cleveland being far more effective and efficient on offense in their own building. This is a top-5 scoring team from the season, and one that was markedly better at home than on the road all year, particularly shooting from deep. That has played out in this series in dramatic fashion, with Cleveland’s shooting numbers being far different depending on where the game is played.
That’s why they’ve scored 122.0 points per game in three home games but 101.0 points in three road games, and I have to lean on that split here. I get it, this is a Game 7, scoring might be at a premium, but the Cavs keep proving they can score on Toronto in the right situation. It’s also important to note that the Raptors coach will play the desperation foul game to its most extreme, so that gives Cleveland the chance to get late points and help send them over this number.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Evan Mobley Over 25.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via Fanduel)
As this series moves along, it becomes more and more clear that Mobley’s role is much bigger than Jarrett Allen’s. Despite both bigs starting every game, Mobley is getting the higher share of minutes and usage, while Allen has had a lot of disappointing stat lines. Like his team on the whole, Mobley has also been much better at home, and his skill set is something Toronto has no answer for so I’ll look for another big contribution tonight.
MLB (1 Unit) Milwaukee Brewers Team Total Over 4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:35 PM CT on MLB.TV
This almost feels too good to be true, like it’s too easy or something. This number should be 5.5 in my opinion, which you don’t see unless there are extreme circumstances, but that’s exactly what a Zack Littell start is. The Nats keep sending this disastrous righty out there due to a lack of alternatives, and he keeps rewarding them with blowup starts. He’s given up 8 runs in each of his past 3 starts which is wild, and can’t keep the ball in the park with 11 home runs allowed across his past 4 starts.
And even if he has a relatively decent outing, like he did against Milwaukee the first time he faced them this season with just 3 earned runs, a terrible bullpen is coming in to worse any damage that’s been done. The Brewers ended up scoring 6 in that game thanks to a bullpen that’s bottom-5 in the league, as have all but one Littell opponent this season. Look, if he’s going to let the Mets of all teams score 8 like he did on Tuesday, then the Brewers should be able to name their score here and easily clear this team total.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Philadelphia Phillies Team Total Over 4.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 12:40 PM CT on MLB.TV
Getting Zack Littell Day to converge with Chris Paddack Day on the same Sunday is a gift. Paddack doesn’t appear to have anything left in the tank as he’s already compiled a 6.11 ERA, and it’s been oddly bad for him at home. loanDepot Park is supposed to be fairly pitcher-friendly, but it’s been a nightmare for Paddack in his home starts, giving up 8 and 5 runs in those games to the Cardinals and White Sox.
That’s not exactly a murderer’s row of bats he gave up insane production to, so this elite Phillies lineup is likely to jump all over him. The Phils are far better against righties like Paddack, and are just too deep and talented to have this bad of a record. Philadelphia should be in a bounce back spot after getting blanked yesterday, and if any of Paddack’s home issues continue today, they’ll easily clear this team total.
MLB (1 Unit) Arizona Diamondback/Chicago Cubs Over 12 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:20 PM CT on MLB.TV
I knew what the wind was doing in Wrigley the moment I saw this total get posted, but I didn’t realize it was to this extent. This is a Coors Field number, and rightly so with winds around 20 MPH and gusts into the 30’s blowing out to dead center today. All you need to do is lift the ball and let it carry in conditions like that, which is exactly what I expect to see happen all game long.
The total might be this high in those conditions if it was an elite pitching matchup, but instead it’s two gas cans squaring off. Merrill Kelly has been awful for Arizona since coming back to them, with two blowup starts in a row against suspect offenses, so this Cubs lineup should jump all over him. Matthew Boyd should also be in for more trouble today against a D’backs team that hits lefties far better, and he was hit hard in his lone start this season with the wind blowing out of Wrigley. There might not be a total high enough for these conditions and matchup, so don’t be afraid of the big number here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 14-19 (-3.69 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
