Locks
MLB (0.75 Unit) Miami Marlins/Pittsburgh Pirates Over 8.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on MLB.TV
Overs at PNC Park are starting to have to be an automatic play. The Pirates are 25-11 to the over at home with the highest plus/minus to the total in the league, buoyed of course by the Dodgers just being in town for 46 runs in 3 games.
It’s still an impressive season-long trend, but not nearly as impressive as what Miami does on the road, going an incredible 21-6-3 to the over. So those trends collide tonight to form one super-trend, and on a night when it’s warm in Pittsburgh with a solid breeze blowing out to center.
I’m not sure starting pitchers matter a whole lot in that scenario, but it’s helpful that both Sandy Alcantara and Braxton Ashcraft have significant question marks. Particularly Sandy, who carries a 5.65 ERA and .323 opponent on-base average on the road, and faces a Pirates offense that’s elite against righties. The Pittsburgh bullpen has also been shaky, and the Marlins are swinging hot bats with 5.1 runs per game during this 8-1 stretch, so I see plenty of runs and a very gettable total here.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Trey Yesavage Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:37 PM CT on YES
The World Series hangover has been real for the Blue Jays, but at least they have Yesavage showing flashes of his potential brilliance. The young right-hander has posted an impressive 1.17 WHIP and .205 opponent on-base average, so hitters really aren’t getting to him much which explains his 9.28 K’s per nine innings mark. Tonight he takes on a Yankees lineup missing a ton of firepower with Aaron Judge still sidelined, and New York has still been striking out at the 7th-highest rate in baseball even with Judge included. Yesavage has faced the Yankees twice in his career, racking up a very high K-rate and fanning 8 in a start just three weeks ago, so at this plus-money price I have to back him to do it again.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Colorado Rockies First 5 Innings Team Total Under 2.5 (+115; Odds via Caesars): 9:05 PM CT on MLB.TV
The totals for these A’s games in Las Vegas are a little ridiculous, even though the stadium and conditions are extremely friendly to scoring. But it’s the Rockies we’re talking about here, and they’re away from Coors where their batting average drops 30 points, their OPS drops 75 points, and go from 2.9 to 2.2 average runs in the first 5 innings.
They’re also up against a lefty starter in the surprising Gage Jump, and that’s always been bad news for Colorado. Against southpaws, the Rockies are middle of the pack in batting average, but dig deeper and you find them at 28th in OPS and wOBA, along with 29th in weighted runs created and 30th in wRC+ this season. For a team that struggles so much both on the road and against lefties, this is an attractive price for that to continue as they deal with both difficult splits at once.
WNBA (0.75 Unit) Golden State Valkyries Team Total Over 83.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ION
I maintain that this Seattle Storm defense is overvalued and falls apart against high level offenses. In 5 games this season against the top-4 offensive efficiency teams, Seattle is allowing 91.8 PPG, plus another 88 against Los Angeles on Wednesday. That includes the season opener against this Golden State squad that put 91 on them in their own building, and I think plenty more points are coming.
The Valkyries have a reputation as a defensive team from their inaugural season last year, but they’ve really improved the offense this year and are 4th in offensive efficiency thanks to hardly ever turning it over. Golden State is also averaging 86.3 PPG against teams in the bottom half of the defensive efficiency rankings, with 5 games already of 90+ points. I think the full game total might be a little low, but I definitely think Golden State’s offense isn’t getting enough credit and they should easily clear this isolated total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 17-18 (-1.03 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
