Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Chet Holmgren Under 22.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:30 PM CT on NBC
This number has finally been adjusted down from where it was for most of the series as books have caught on to Chet’s struggles. It’s a bad matchup for him against an even taller and more athletic lanky alien, and Wemby has made this matchup personal going back many years. That’s why we’re seeing the fall-off in Chet’s production compared to the first two rounds of the playoffs, as he’s only averaging 18.5 PRA in the conference finals.
That’s down from 29.0 against the Lakers and Suns, so the matchup definitely matters. He didn’t do well in the regular season series against the Spurs either, with just 19.3 PRA in the four meetings he played, and you have to remember that Wemby was coming off the bench with a minutes restriction in those games. So it’s no coincidence, and I’m still willing to go under on this lower number.
Bonus Bets (0.25 Unit Each): Thunder Three-Point Props (Odds via Fanduel)
I expect the Thunder to counter San Antonio’s adjustment from Game 4 with a lot of three’s tonight. The high-drop coverage that San Antonio employed in Game 4 can be beaten with pull-up three’s from SGA, which aren’t his favorite shot, but he’s shown a willingness to take them when needed in similar situations. As for Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso, they keep getting left open in normal situations so that should be even more of the case if the Spurs stick with this defensive strategy. Playing all three of these low numbers at plus-money prices should theoretically turn a profit tonight.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 Made Three’s (+105)
Cason Wallace Over 1.5 Made Three’s (+100)
Alex Caruso Over 1.5 Made Three’s (+110)
MLB (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Braves/Boston Red Sox First 5 Innings Under 4 (-105; Odds via Caesars): 5:45 PM CT on MLB.TV
Neither of these teams can hit right now, which is a longstanding issue for the Red Sox but a new one for the Braves. When you get swept at home by Twins pitching like the Red Sox just did, things are ugly and it’s only going to get tougher today. Spencer Strider comes to Fenway, getting stronger and more confident start by start. He’s already held this Boston lineup down once this season, allowing just 3 hits to a team that is near the bottom in just about every major offensive statistic against righthanded pitching.
And for Atlanta, things just aren’t working right now. It’s a miracle they didn’t get swept at home themselves, in their case against one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball. They lost a series for the first time this season thanks to the lights going out on their elite offense, which I think carries into tonight. They’re much worse against lefties, and will face one in Ranger Suarez who has a lot of experience against the Braves lineup. Cumulatively, Atlanta is batting just .239 with a .653 OPS against Suarez, who’s been elite in his past 4 starts with just 1 earned run on 12 total hits. I think the bats stay cold for both teams, at least early on, so I like the first 5 under here.
MLB (0.75 Unit) KC Royals First 5 Innings Team Total Under 1.5 (-120; Odds via Caesars): 6:40 PM CT on YES
It’s all about Cam Schlittler here. If you can find his earned runs prop at under 1.5 with a juicy return that’d be my recommendation, but I’m only seeing 2.5 with absolutely preposterous juice on the under. Books don’t want you profiting off his dominance like that, but taking the Royals to stay quiet early in this game is the next best thing.
Schlittler has been mowing down lineups consistently all season, finally giving up multiple earned runs in his last start after six straight of one or less. But that didn’t even come until the seventh inning, proving that he can dominate the first couple of turns through the order. I expect that to continue here against a Royals team that is just average against righties, and 24th when it comes to pure scoring. In what amounts to a bounce back spot for him, expect Schlittler to dominate the early goings of this game and keep the KC bats quiet.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115; Odds via Fanduel): 9:10 PM CT on SportsNet
Ohtani has not been himself at the plate, there’s no denying it. If you think that’s going to continue long term, just stop. Especially when one of his favorite victims, the Colorado Rockies, are in town as he’s crushed the pitching of this team year after year. One of his favorite starters in Kyle Freeland takes the mound today, and Shohei is batting .636 with a 1.939 OPS against him in his career. Ohtani started last night’s game with one of his patented leadoff extra base hits so he’s already locked in against the Rockies pitching, and in the grand scheme of things this is a bargain price on his total bases prop so count me in.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 12-12 (+0.30 Units) – Recommend: Probably Fade
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
