Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Zach Wheeler Alt Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+130; Odds via Fanduel): 5:40 PM CT on TBS
Books don’t know what to do with this strikeout prop tonight. That’s why the standard line of 6.5 is juiced so heavily, but I’m not scared to climb the ladder here with alternate numbers. The uncertainty comes from Wheeler’s current form being so much different than the season-long version we’ve seen. Strikeout totals of 10, 14, and 10 in his past three starts are definite anomalies compared to the rest of the year.
You also have a Dodgers team on the other side that doesn’t strike out very much at all, and not against righties like Wheeler, owning the 26th K-rate in baseball for that split. They also faced Wheeler already this season, tagging him for 4 earned runs and only striking out 4 times. But that’s not the version of Wheeler they’ll see tonight, as this is a man on a mission to make a statement after getting denied an All-Star appearance, so I think he racks up the K’s again tonight and I’m also sprinkling these next rungs up the ladder.
0.25 Unit – Alt Over 8.5 Strikeouts (+240)
0.1 Unit – Alt Over 9.5 Strikeouts (+460)
MLB (0.75 Unit) Chicago White Sox/Texas Rangers Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:05 PM CT on MLB.TV
I thought if this streak was going to end, it would be last night in Globe Life Field with Jacob deGrom on the mound. That streak would be the now 11 straight overs in Rangers games, and 17 of their past 20, which an ace on the mound in a park that always trends under couldn’t stop. So I don’t see it stopping tonight with this pitching matchup that should be far more hitter-friendly.
The White Sox, as the league’s 4th-best over team both overall and on the road, send out Noah Schultz who as a lefty puts the Rangers in their better hitting split. Texas can hit lefties, they’ve just had trouble converting runs, but they’re 4th in the league for wRC+ and those projections bearing out is what has fueled this over run. And Kumar Rocker starts for Texas, who has a 4.91 ERA at home and 17 earned runs across his past 3 home starts. This surprisingly dangerous White Sox team should be able to pounce on him and a tired bullpen to help push this game over the total.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Washington Nationals/Colorado Rockies Over 13 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:40 PM CT on MLB.TV
It’s a hot day in Denver with a strong wind blowing out at Coors Field, there really isn’t much else you’d need to know about this game. That’s enough to get me interested in the over by itself, but add in that we have the league’s second-best over team in the Nationals visiting these ideal conditions and now I’m really intrigued. But wait, there’s more, as the pitching matchup here features two awful righthanded starters in Miles Mikolas and Michael Lorenzen.
Both of these teams are really good against righties, both ranking top-5 in OPS and Colorado actually sitting 4th in weighted runs created and 3rd in weighted on-base average. And when these starters are on the mound, their respective bullpens tend to get a lot of work, and these are two of the league’s five worst relief units. So absolutely everything about this game spells over, and I’m not afraid to pay the Coors Field tax on this total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 14-9 (+2.29 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
