Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Mitch Keller Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 5:40 PM CT on MLB.TV
It’s been an up and down year for Keller, with some pretty drastic downs, and another could be coming here. The Dodgers will be fired up after blowing yesterday’s game like they were doing their best Spurs impression, and I think they’ll have an easy time of getting to Keller tonight. They have great numbers against him historically, combining for a cumulative .312 average and 1.001 OPS.
Plus, they’re far and away the best offense against righthanded pitching, leading baseball in essentially every metric. Keller has allowed far lesser teams to get him for more than this number of hits, including the Triple-A Twins two starts ago, so this feels like the best way to back the Dodgers today.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Shohei Ohtani Over 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-110; Odds via Fanduel)
Those hits have to come from somewhere, and where better than maybe the most fired up of all the Dodgers for today. Ohtani is not pleased about how yesterday’s game played out, and has an opportunity to take out some frustrations against Keller who he knows well. Ohtani is batting .364 with a 1.598 OPS against Keller, with a double, triple, and two homers in 11 at-bats, so don’t be surprised if he leads off with a home run tonight that cashes this prop in one swing.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Chicago Sky @ Indiana Fever -9.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Prime Video
I’ll say it again, this Sky squad is a bet-against team until the market corrections go too far, and that’s not happening yet. Chicago is now on a 1-7 straight up and ATS streak since Rickea Jackson was lost for the season, and still being without Courtney Vandersloot and DiJonai Carrington only adds to the shorthanded problems for this roster. They were finally competitive in a game on Tuesday, only to fold down the stretch which is the hallmark of a team with no fight.
I think we see that lack of energy continue here against a Fever team that’s had their kumbaya moment, and are pumped up with confidence after a buzzer-beater by Caitlin Clark on Monday night. Indiana is much better at home, particularly on the defensive end, and should be able to shut down a Sky team with very limited scoring options. Don’t forget that this Commissioner’s Cup game encourages running up the winning margin, and with a Prime Video audience that’s exactly what I expect the Fever to do.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 19-21 (-2.58 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
