Locks
MLB (1 Unit) KC Royals/Washington Nationals Over 10 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:05 PM CT on MLB.TV
It’s Zach Littell Day today, and that typically means he’s helping to fuel Washington’s standing as the best over team in baseball. Littell actually had a good month going in May, getting to pitch away from home and against some weaker lineups, but then he returned to normal last Friday. The Nats righty just can’t be trusted at home where he has a 6.19 ERA, and never forget that the bullpen arms that replace him aren’t any better.
So I see the Royals being able to put up plenty of runs here even though this offense is questionable at best with Salvador Perez out. I think Washington might do most of the heavy lifting though, as KC sends Luinder Avila out for another potential disaster. Avila didn’t get out of the first inning on Friday against a Houston squad that is a high-level scoring team against righties just like the Nats are, so he could be in big trouble again. Both pitching staffs have to deal with a big wind blowing out to center on a hot day, so the ballpark that has delivered the most overs this season should set up another one today.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Miami Marlins/Philadelphia Phillies Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:05 PM CT on MLB.TV
The Marlins and their road overs keep rolling along, as they still lead baseball with a ridiculous 72% mark to the over away from home. I’m sensing another one here, as they go up against a Phillies offense that is getting back into the groove after a run of striking out like crazy. They can get to Sandy Alcantara, especially the road version that’s carrying a 5.24 ERA, as they’re collectively hitting .302 against the Marlins righty.
And the Miami offense is due to break back out after a quiet stretch, and they have a good opportunity against a weak pitcher. The Phillies rookie just hasn’t been able to limit runs, carrying a 6.43 ERA and 5.17 fielding independent, so this sneaky-good Miami lineup should jump on him like they did earlier this season. It’s a warm day in Philadelphia with the wind blowing out to center, so with a lot of pop in both lineups, this total should be reached pretty easily.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Chicago White Sox @ NY Yankees -1.5 (+110; Odds via Caesars): 6:05 PM CT on Prime Video
I’m not usually in love with laying the run line on a home team, but the price is right here and so is the situation. The Yankees are sending Carlos Rodon out for a revenge start against his former club, and I think he can dominate them in a high motivation spot. If he does, then the Yankee bats will take care of the rest.
Even without Aaron Judge this team has been elite at producing runs, especially against lefties like they’ll see tonight. Anthony Kay has been good for Chicago but not on the road, where his 6.04 ERA is going up against a Yankees lineup that is top-5 in every metric against southpaws. This has a chance to get out of hand like last night’s game did, so lay it with the home team here.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Carlos Rodon Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+115; Odds via Fanduel)
Rodon is less of a strikeout pitcher at this stage of his career, but has still gone over this number in 3 of his 6 starts this season. He’s up against a White Sox lineup that is striking out at the 9th-highest rate against lefties though, and given the extra motivation against his former team, I’ll take a bite on this plus-money return.
WNBA (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Lynx -8.5 @ LA Sparks (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 9:00 PM CT on Victory+
This number has rocketed up from the opener of 3.5 to here, but I still have to like the Lynx tonight. The move is due to Cameron Brink being out, while Kelsey Plum is a game-time decision but it’s not looking good for her either. Keep an eye on that status, because without Plum this LA team completely falls apart, especially on the offensive end.
And the Lynx should be looking to hand out a beating too, as they’re still clinging to life in making the Commissioner’s Cup Final by virtue of the Aces stumbling on Monday. Minnesota would need another surprising loss by Las Vegas tonight, but I’m confident the Lynx will handle their part tonight. There’s a reason they’re the best ATS team in the league, including on the road where they’re 5-1 ATS with an 11.7 average margin of victory. I think they’re good enough to run out a full-strength Sparks team, so expect a runaway in this one.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 18-14 (+2.82 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
