Locks
NBA Summer League (0.5 Unit) Golden State Warriors -7.5 vs OKC Thunder (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on Prime Video
I came into this tournament looking to fade the Thunder at every opportunity, so here we go. A 12-point loss to the Lakers on Friday night, which could’ve been a 20-plus point rout if LA cared down the stretch, proves it to me even more. It apparently proves it to everyone else since this number has been steaming up in a hurry, but I’d agree that the Warriors are just that much better. Golden State has plenty of shooters, and went 50% from deep in their opening game. Plus, the duo of LJ Cryer and Yaxel Lendeborg is extremely difficult to stop at this level of basketball, so I see a deep Warriors squad pulling away for a comfortable win here.
NBA Summer League (0.75 Unit) Utah Jazz -3.5 vs LA Clippers (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on Prime Video
One thing to watch out for here is the Clippers not being quite as bad as they were in their opener, because top pick Keaton Wagler won’t be as bad. Wagler’s first game as a pro was ugly, and he’ll get better, but I still think Utah is the side to be on at such a reasonable number here. The Jazz are simply too talented and too deep, with a lot of help surrounding Darryn Peterson who has looked unstoppable so far this summer.
I think Utah got a little too high on themselves after dominating up in Salt Lake City, and stumbled out of the gates against a talented Wizards team. But you have to remember how many Jazz players were getting serious minutes in the NBA last season, which puts them at a much different level than other teams in this event. The Clippers don’t have much beyond Wagler, and I don’t think they can handle a really good Jazz roster in search of a bounce back tonight.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Chicago Sky/Dallas Wings Over 178.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
I’m surprised to see this number a little lower than expected, as these teams have shown they can put up a lot of points together. Two meetings so far this season have seen 188 and 185 points, with both teams shooting it very well in those games. This total might be a little suppressed by the fact that Dallas has the best defensive efficiency mark at home this season, but that stat is propped up by some significant outlier games.
In reality, I think both of these defenses are pretty rough, especially Chicago who hasn’t been able to stop much of anything lately. That has fueled their 8-2 over run lately, where they’ve actually been able to figure out the offense despite so many injuries this season. They had no trouble figuring out the Wings defense the last time they visited Dallas, putting up 92 points in a game they should’ve won. I’m confident that they can do it again, and that the Wings can exploit an awful defense, sending this over a discounted total.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) A’Ja Wilson Over 25.5 Points (-120; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on NBC
Wilson only scored 21 points yesterday as her 30-plus streak came to an end. But she had 16 at halftime and barely played in the second half of one of the all-time blowouts in WNBA history. That was probably good for her as she’s coming off an injury and has to play again tonight, in a much more competitive game you would expect.
The Aces will need a big game from her tonight, as Las Vegas tries to avenge another ugly home loss for the second night in a row. Wilson missed the other meeting this season, just a week ago where the Fever ran the Aces out of their own building. It’s fortunate for Indiana that Wilson was out because this team is having familiar defensive issues lately, and I think a highly motivated Wilson should torch them.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 9-12 (-2.91 Units) – Recommend: Probably Fade
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
