Locks
NBA Summer League (0.5 Unit) Golden State Warriors -7.5 vs NY Knicks (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2
I’m not going to fault the Warriors for getting run out by a good Memphis team on Tuesday, they’re still very talented. Plenty talented to handle this Knicks squad even though New York got off the mat with a surprise win the other day. The Knicks only shot 41% in that game and caught the Pistons at the perfect time as Detroit couldn’t shoot at all. But this is the same Knicks team that shot 26% and 28% in their first two games and is devoid of any actual talent, trying to match up with a Warriors roster that has some high level players. Golden State is also looking to stay out of the consolation here, and the kind of blowout win that you can get over the Knicks is exactly what I think they’re going for tonight.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Portland Fire/Washington Mystics Over 162.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on NBA TV
This is one of the lower totals you’ll see all season in the WNBA, and it’s due to a really good Mystics defense being in action. Washington has had some really low-scoring games lately, but they’ve also had a 247-point game just a couple weeks ago when Portland last came to town. Ok, ok, so it went to quadruple overtime, but it still started the first OT session with 174 points on the board.
The key here will have to be Portland, as their poor defense that’s third-worst in the league will give up plenty of points to just about anyone. Washington might have a good defense, but they’re actually one of the higher possessions-per-game teams in the league, and they’ll be able to maximize those against this poor Fire defense. The Mystics do have a positive over record at home this season, and I think this very low number can be reached.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) NY Liberty @ Dallas Wings -1.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on Prime Video
This is a matchup of two teams headed in opposite directions. The Liberty have simply not been themselves lately, dropping 7 of 10 after an eight-game winning streak, and taking advantage of a couple of shorthanded teams for two of those wins. Age and injuries are catching up to this roster, and on the other side is an up and coming Wings team.
Dallas has won 5 in a row, but they’ve also dominated the Liberty this season with wins by 15 and 11 points, both coming in New York. This is also a Wings team that takes care of business when they’re supposed to, going 11-2 straight up when favored this season. All I’m basically asking for here on this short number is one of those wins, so I’ll back Dallas to get it done tonight.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) NY Liberty/Dallas Wings Under 177.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel)
There are conflicting trends here, as the Liberty are 10-2 to the over on the road, but Dallas is where overs go to die as Wings home games are 7-3 to the under. Those two previous meetings also stayed well under the total with 167 and 165 points, thanks to Dallas holding the Liberty to poor shooting. The Liberty are heavily reliant on the three, and Dallas did a great job on the perimeter in those games, as they have all season at home, so look for this one to fall short again tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 13-11 (-0.96 Units) – Recommend: Probably Fade
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
