Locks
MLB (0.75 Unit) Aaron Nola Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+120; Odds via Fanduel): 5:40 PM CT on MLB.TV
This is kind of a surprising number given how bad Nola has been this season and who he’s facing. He’s particularly bad at home, allowing a 6.50 ERA and .312 opponent batting average in Citizens Bank Park where he’s 7-2 over this total on the year. And he’s up against the scariest lineup in baseball tonight, with the Dodgers crushing righties on the year. LA is just behind the Pirates for best numbers against righthanded pitching this season, and coincidentally Nola has faced Pittsburgh twice, giving up 8 and 6 hits in those games so I think the Dodgers can match it tonight.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Texas Rangers Team Total Over 4.5 (+110; Odds via Caesars): 7:05 PM CT on MLB.TV
Last night made 12 straight overs in Rangers games, but there’s been very little adjustment by books if any. What seems to be particularly difficult for them to grasp is that this stretch of higher-scoring games is fueled by the Rangers finally turning baserunners into runs, and that’s at a rate which is matching their projected metrics for most of the season. With a wRC+ mark of 104, Texas is not that far behind the best offenses in baseball despite being 22nd in scoring, but the actual runs are finally starting to catch up.
The Rangers are averaging just over 5 runs per game in their past 7 series, and are even better against lefties. They’ll see another southpaw tonight in Anthony Kay, who has struggled in the road with a 5.80 ERA, plus there’s a shorthanded and worn out bullpen behind him. I think that’s definitely advantage Texas offense here, and at plus money I’ll take a shot that they keep plating the runs they should’ve been all season.
WNBA (1 Unit) Minnesota Lynx Team Total Over 94.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on Victory+
Ok, yes, I’m falling victim to betting the last thing I saw and getting a little too excited about Lynx news, but can you blame me? Minnesota just torched the Storm for 105 points, and now they finally get Napheesa Collier back in the lineup. The long-awaited return is probably just a warm-up game heading into the All-Star break, but her talents and gravity can’t be ignored.
What’s happening here is adding a top-3 player in the league to the best team in the league, which is almost unheard of. But that’s the fortunate situation the Lynx find themselves in, and I think it helps them put up another big number today. The Lynx have been extremely balanced in their scoring against Seattle this season, and it’s a Storm defense that I think is weaker than their metrics suggest. An elite team welcoming back an elite player is not something Seattle can contain, so I think there’s another big day on the scoreboard for the Lynx here.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Chicago Sky Team Total Over 86 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on FOX5 NY
I think there’s real trouble brewing in New York for this Liberty team, whose age and defensive liabilities are starting to show. Their past 12 games, in which they’re just 4-8 straight up and 2-10 ATS, have come with a lot of defensive struggles as they’re allowing 89.0 PPG. This is supposed to be a much better defense at home, but the games in New York during that stretch have seen them allow 86.3 PPG while facing a couple of bad and shorthanded opponents.
And the Sky already know how to score on them, dropping 95 in the other meeting this season, albeit in Chicago. But this team is scoring like crazy right now with 94.7 PPG their past 10, and are never afraid to push pace as they average the most possessions per game on the road this season. I think they give the Liberty a fight, which means more scoring from a team that isn’t getting the respect it deserves right now.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Sydney Taylor Over 16.5 Points (-110; Odds via Fanduel)
Taylor is all Chicago really has in the backcourt right now for scoring pop, but the rookie is not afraid to step up. Since getting true starter minutes, Taylor has poured in 17.9 PPG on 49% shooting which is a per-game scoring average that would put her 11th in the league if it was a full season. In their past 4 games, the Liberty have allowed lead guards to drop 23, 30, 33, and 29 points, so with plenty of volume I think Taylor has a big game as well.
WNBA (0.75 Unit) Aliyah Boston Over 7.5 Rebounds (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on USA Network
The Fever are the second-best team in the league for rebounding rate, and Aliyah Boston is the biggest reason why. She’s contributing 8.6 rebounds per game, so right there this number doesn’t make a lot of sense. It really starts looking attractive when you factor in that Connecticut, an average rebounding team, could be without Brittney Griner tonight.
Boston might dominate the glass no matter what like she did in the first meeting with 11 boards, but removing Griner from the equation and having her face a shorthanded Sun frontcourt would be unfair. Indiana’s league-leading pace helps create more opportunities for rebounds, which is why they lead the league in pure rebounds-per-game, and I think their best glass cleaner racks them up again tonight.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Dallas Wings Team Total Over 90.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on USA Network
Keep an eye on the status of Paige Bueckers for this game, as she’s questionable after missing Monday’s contest. If the Wings have their star, they should be unstoppable against this terrible Portland defense that can’t guard anything right now. This many points is just average for what the Fire allow this season as they’re giving up 90.2 PPG overall and are 13th in defensive efficiency.
It gets worse against top offenses though, as the 5 teams with the best offensive efficiency marks in the league are scoring 92.8 PPG against Portland. Dallas is one of those top-5 teams, but they only managed 83 points in the first meeting with the Fire, a game that Bueckers missed due to injury. The Wings shot well below their season averages in that game, but if they’re adding Paige back to the mix here against a struggling defense, I think they clear this total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 15-9 (+4.19 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
