Roughly two weeks since Spring Training began, the Minnesota Twins’ training room is already filling up. Several key players have gone on the shelf in the opening weeks. Still, the most concerning development is that Minnesota’s pitching staff has chosen Nick Paparesta’s office as an impromptu meeting spot. The onslaught of injuries has put pressure on Joe Ryan as the veteran star pitcher.
The Twins lost Pablo López to a torn UCL in their first full team workout. David Festa‘s shoulder impingement landed him on the injured list after he overcame thoracic outlet syndrome in the offseason. As a result of Minnesota’s injuries, Taj Bradley and Mick Abel will be able to compete for rotation spots in Spring Training. However, Ryan is under the biggest spotlight.
Ryan has been a crucial part of the Twins’ rotation for the past few seasons. He occupies the No. 2 spot in the rotation since Sonny Gray left in free agency after the 2023 season. But everything is ramping up this spring, because the Twins must decide whether to extend Ryan as soon as possible.
Ryan’s future is quickly becoming one of the biggest storylines for this year’s team. Ryan ended up in trade rumors when former president of baseball and business operations Derek Falvey conducted a fire sale at last year’s deadline. Ryan plays a key role in ensuring this team is competitive. But he also should be a key piece of his future.
Over the past two seasons, Ryan has entered into ace territory. His 3.50 earned run average ranks 38th over primary starters that qualified for the ERA title the past two seasons, but he’s in the game’s elite when it comes to walks per nine innings (1.8), WHIP (1.013), and strikeout to walk ratio (5.50).
With each of those numbers ranking in the top 11 of MLB starters, Ryan has become one of the game’s best starters. But that also means his price is continuing to skyrocket. While he is under contract on a one-year, $6.2 million deal for this season that includes a mutual $13 million option for 2027, it would be wise to ramp up long-term extension talks before it’s too late.
Part of it centers around the current state of the Twins. After last year’s fire sale, Ryan is one of the few names that fans can attach themselves to. As a result of his fondness for the Grateful Dead, he could end up like Ozzie Smith at the Springfield Mystery Spot.
Still, he’s the type of guy who can bring fans to the ballpark on days that he’s pitching and bring precious revenue for a team struggling to get into the black.
A Ryan extension would also go a long way toward establishing trust between the fans and Tom Pohlad, who took over for his brother Joe as the ownership’s control person. Pohlad has spent his offseason touting his propensity for going big. Still, outside of confirming a rumor that the Twins pursued Framber Valdez, the team made modest signings in Josh Bell, Victor Caratini, and Taylor Rogers, along with a group of players on minor league deals.
Ryan will likely cost more than the four-year, $72 million contract extension López signed after he arrived in 2023. But even if it’s closer to four years, $100 million, it would also be better to use that money than to sign Lucas Giolito or Zack Littell in free agency. It would be a commitment to keeping homegrown players past their initial window of team control.
That would also be a better alternative compared to waiting it out. Ryan will be the unquestioned ace of the Twins this season. Bailey Ober will be in the No. 2 role, barring a last-minute blockbuster. However, the back end of the rotation has a trio of wild cards, including Simeon Woods Richardson, Bradley, Abel, and Zebby Matthews.
Vegas projects the Twins to be a 72.5-win team. However, if Ryan pitches well, he’ll stand out even more to big-market teams looking to add at the deadline. Some may see this as a positive because they can get a bigger trade package. However, it could mean an end to his time in Minnesota, because his next extension would likely be in the $30 million-per-year range.
That could make the Twins front office swallow hard about a potential Ryan extension. But it could also help them in the future. MLB is likely to curb spending in its next collective bargaining agreement. The Athletic’s Evan Drellich reported in February that a “reasonable goal” for a salary cap could be $240 million. However, he also emphasized that teams could have a floor of $160 million.
FanGraphs estimates Minnesota’s payroll to be $106 million. Adding Ryan’s $20 to $30 million in an extension could go a long way toward hitting the floor if they play baseball in 2027. With the possibility of additional extensions for young players such as Royce Lewis, Luke Keaschall, and Walker Jenkins if they impress this season, it could also go a long way toward ensuring the Twins are competitive when the new CBA takes effect.
Of course, it takes both sides to be on the same page, and Ryan could have had enough of the drama that has surrounded the Twins for the past three years. Still, if Minnesota signs Joe Ryan, it could be the move fans have been waiting for, and the latest wave of injuries makes now the perfect time to make it happen.
