To compete in 2026, the Minnesota Twins will need a big effort from their starting rotation. That took a big hit on Tuesday when they announced that Pablo López has a partially torn UCL in his pitching elbow and could miss the entire season if he undergoes Tommy John surgery.
While Lopez is getting a second opinion, it appears surgery is imminent, leaving the rotation in flux. Joe Ryan would become the de facto ace with Bailey Ober behind him. Still, barring a big free-agent signing or trade, it will be on a group of young arms to seize a spot in the starting rotation.
Zebby Matthews is toward the top of the list. Matthews took some strides in his first full major league season but ended up with a 5-6 record and 5.56 ERA. Despite the rough numbers, there was some upside, leading former Twins reliever Danny Coulombe to suggest he could become a future ace.
That bar seems a little too high for what Matthews could become after roughly a year and a half of service time. Still, his performance last year could also put him in a big spot in 2026.
When old school Twins fans think of “big spots,” they think of former pitcher Scott Baker. Nicknamed “Big Spot Scott” in the late 2000s, Baker often has a negative connotation among Twins fans because he was a product of Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson‘s “pitch to contact” philosophy. However, Baker also had an important role that the Twins will need someone to fill in their rotation after López went down.
Baker started his career as a call-up during the 2005 season and went 3-3 with a 3.35 ERA. However, he struggled in spot duty the following season, going 5-8 with a 6.37 ERA. Still, he got his first opportunity as a full-time major leaguer during the 2007 season and surged to the top of the rotation after they traded Johan Santana in 2008.
The Twins may have made Baker their ace out of necessity, but he was an effective pitcher. In 137 games (134 starts) from 2007 to 2011, Baker went 55-37 with a 3.98 ERA and averaged 164.2 innings per season, including a 200-inning campaign in 2009. While his numbers weren’t overwhelming, he limited his walks and struck out enough hitters be an effective starter.
Scott Baker’s career could be a blueprint for Zebby Matthews in 2026. Matthews’s first two years haven’t gone as planned, with a 6-10 record and a 5.92 ERA in 25 starts. He’s also been prone to allowing hard contact, carrying a 39.9% hard hit rate and a .478 expected slugging percentage that are well above the major league average.
But despite the flaws, you can also see signs of a pitcher taking baby steps. According to Baseball Savant, Matthews saw large jumps in chase percentage, whiff rate, and strikeout rate compared to his two-month audition at the end of the 2024 season. While he keeps the ball in the zone, he also has a walk rate that’s below the major league average and a strong strikeout rate.
While Matthews has the “keep it over the plate” philosophy that Baker had, he also has a better set of tools. Matthews’ fastball velocity jumped from 94.9 mph to 96.2 mph last season. Meanwhile, his fielding-independent pitching (FIP) suggested he deserved better results. His 3.79 FIP was nearly two runs lower than his 5.56 ERA.
The catch is that Matthews had trouble staying healthy, landing on the injured list last June with a shoulder strain and missing several weeks. However, if he stays on the mound, he could find ways to go deeper into games with more reps and fill that Baker role for the modern-day Twins.
López’s injury amplifies Minnesota’s need for a strong season from Matthews. Assuming they’re not making a move for a pitcher to save the day, Matthews will be either in the third or fourth spot in the rotation. Last year’s trade deadline acquisitions, Taj Bradley or Mick Abel, could pass him. Still, Matthews has the longest track record with the Twins and will get the benefit of the doubt in roster decisions.
There’s no replacing a pitcher that was having his best major league season (5-4, 2.74 ERA) before landing on the injured list with a teres major strain last June. But it’s why teams have options like Matthews in the organization.
Unless there’s a last-minute miracle, the Twins will throw Zebby Matthews into a big spot in his second full major league season. If he keeps stacking things together, there’s a chance that he could fill the same job as his 2000s predecessor and help Minnesota have a competitive team this year.
