When Julius Randle unexpectedly landed with the Minnesota Timberwolves days before the 2023-24 season, Anthony Edwards went out of his way to make the three-time All-Star feel comfortable with the Wolves.
“Don’t fit around us,” Edwards said, “we are going to fit around you.”
Julius Randle arrived in Minneapolis as a polarizing player. In a league dominated by threes, pick-and-rolls, and free-flowing offense, Randle is a bruising forward who scores at best in isolation, in the mid-range, and around the rim. He’s one of the last players in the league to have learned under Kobe Bryant with the Los Angeles Lakers.
With that playstyle comes limitation. But it is a limitation the Timberwolves have overcome. Last year, they made a run to the Western Conference Finals with Randle at the forefront.
But this season, the Wolves lost to the San Antonio Spurs in six games in the second round. And as players, coaches, and executives walked off the court following a 139-109 loss Friday, and into the off-season, a question faces the front office:
Have they reached their ceiling with Julius Randle on the roster?
Edwards told Randle they would fit around him ahead of his second game with the team. Randle scored 33 points on 13 of 17 shooting that night against the Sacramento Kings, and the Timberwolves won. It was the type of performance that Randle orchestrated frequently with the New York Knicks, and continues to be a threat to pull off with the Wolves.
However, despite Edwards’ initial claims, it became evident to Chris Finch last season that Randle’s best fit with the Wolves came as a point forward. A player who could play fast, set up quality offense, and act as a hub around Edwards.
When Randle acts as the connector, their partnership has blossomed, and Minnesota’s offense has hummed. He played that role to close last season and into the playoffs, earning a three-year, $100 million contract extension. He was that player in the first half of this season, playing at a legit All-Star level before the All-Star break. However, he regressed in the second half of the regular season.
And the face of a San Antonio defense that can completely disassemble offenses, Julius Randle didn’t act as a connector for the Wolves. He was amongst the disconnected pieces, lying miles apart.
In Minnesota’s Game 6 139-109 elimination loss, Randle finished as a -34 in 24 minutes. He shot 1 of 8 from the floor, recorded one assist, and scored three points. Randle finished the second round averaging 12.8 points, 1.5 assists, and three turnovers while shooting 34% from the floor, 19% from deep, and an uncharacteristic 39.6% from two-point range.
Minnesota’s lack of three-point shooting and spacing around Edwards killed them against San Antonio. Donte DiVincenzo, who tore his Achilles in the first round, was sorely missed, and the Wolves needed to compensate.
The Spurs consistently trapped, blitzed, and double-teamed Edwards. Finch never thought Minnesota’s spacing around that was good enough. Jaden McDaniels shot 23.8% from three in the playoffs, and Randle isn’t a 3-point shooter.
Still, Finch spaced Randle from the corners against San Antonio out of necessity. The Wolves need to stretch the floor as much as possible with Edwards on the court, especially with Victor Wembanyama guarding the rim.
Julius Randle can space the floor, but he does it by creating three-point shots rather than taking them. He will create threes by playing as a point forward and breaking the point-of-attack defense with quick, decisive decision-making.
However, during this playoff run, Randle proved that player — for all the times he has broken through in a Wolves uniform — is detrimentally situational.
The Spurs didn’t let Randle play like a point forward. They didn’t let him play, period. They forced him to play against relentless physicality and into crowds every time he attacked the rim.
In the face of that pressure, Randle struggled to hold onto the ball and didn’t generate offense for his teammates. That really hurts a Wolves team that lacks a traditional point guard even when fully healthy. It’s also a scary thing for a Wolves team with championship hopes and a superstar who just concluded his sixth year, vying for his first championship.
Randle recorded nine assists total against the Spurs with 18 turnovers.
“They had physical perimeter defenders that were able to kind of stand up a lot of Julius’ momentum drives,” Finch said after Friday’s game. “And then when he would get to his spots, they would just bring so much size and help. I think it really took away his ability to play where he likes to play the best and most.”
Wembanyama is an anomaly. Finch believes that some of Randle’s struggles against San Antonio were because of Wembanyama’s defense. But as Finch also mentions, it was more than just the 7’4” center clogging the paint.
San Antonio brought the physical, fast pressure that the Wolves aren’t going to escape if they hope to win a championship in the next five years. The Oklahoma City Thunder ended Minnesota’s season in the Western Conference Finals last year by defending with the same, if not better, pressure.
The Spurs and Thunder aren’t going anywhere. Edwards and the Wolves aren’t getting any younger. Championship windows are short. The Wolves know that. Tim Connelly views making the Conference Finals as a “puncher’s chance” to win it all. But they missed that chance this season, and as Connelly looks for ways to improve what was a flawed roster for most of the season, he may look to pivot off Randle.
When gauging a potential return for Randle, the biggest factors are his market and how many of his 15.3 field-goal attempts the Wolves can replace with internal growth and empowerment.
Are the Wolves confident enough that Jaden McDaniels can develop into a legitimate, consistent, and efficient No. 2-level scorer as soon as next season? Naz Reid — who battled a right shoulder injury in the second half of the season — will be healthy next season. He should be back at his 15-point-per-game level. Ayo Dosunmu proved he can score in bunches. Can he do it consistently enough in an even bigger role?
If the Wolves are confident in all of that, then there wouldn’t be too much pressure on them to get a star-level player in return who can score in volume. If not, then there is, especially with how inconsistent and sometimes directionless Minnesota’s offense was this season. Perhaps the Wolves can acquire someone who can consistently set up a quality offense and space the floor around Edwards.
Tom Schreier pitched a Randle for Kyrie Irving swap earlier this week. Giannis Antetokounmpo will likely be on a new team this summer. Maybe Connelly will push his chips in and trade for Antetokounmpo.
“You’ve either got to be a problem or have a solution,” Finch said after Friday’s game on how the Wolves can close the gap in the Western Conference.
“You’ve got to either be built in a way that troubles your opponent, that is something they don’t have. Or you’ve got to have a counter to what they do have. I’m sure [general managers] across the league, these are things they wrestle with all the time.”
The Wolves are not a problem in the West right now. Instead, they have problems, and they need a solution. We will see how the Wolves go about that solution. They have a talented roster, but it didn’t fit together as consistently as they needed.
Julius Randle isn’t the only reason for that. But the Wolves seemed to have reached their ceiling with him on the roster. And that isn’t purely reactionary to his underwhelming series. Instead, a reflection and culmination of the player we’ve seen over the last two years, which became evident against the Spurs.
Randle can score in bunches and run the offense. He can buy in defensively and be a fit next to Edwards. But he’s not a player who does it consistently enough, especially against aggressive and fast postseason defense, for a Wolves team that wants to contend.
