The NBA playoffs are a different beast.
Roles change, defensive coverages tighten up, and possession-to-possession intensity spikes. Most of all, production wavers.
Every year, rotational players who have had productive regular seasons struggle in the playoffs. Teams naturally put the ball into their best players’ hands, which can ultimately change the blueprint for role players.
Often, individuals’ struggles come down to archetypes. The most frequent grouping of players who struggle is those who cannot effectively connect on three-point jumpers. Opposing teams will ultimately sag off them and dare them to shoot. Another common example is teams hunting players with defensive liabilities due to their size limitations or lack of defensive prowess.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have been no strangers to some of their core rotational players suffering from common playoff shortcomings.
Rudy Gobert has been played off the court multiple times throughout his career due to his offensive limitations. Kyle Anderson’s lack of three-point shooting in his second season in Minnesota, after an eye surgery tanked his shooting the year prior, made it difficult to play lineups with multiple non-shooters. Even when he was playing at a higher level than today, Mike Conley’s shorter stature has always drawn increased offensive attention.
This year, Minnesota’s ‘Twin Turbos’, Bones Hyland and Ayo Dosunmu, may be the players with the most to prove, given how teams play in the playoffs.
Hyland can show Denver he’s part of a winning formula
Bones Hyland has a chance to show Denver, the franchise that drafted him 26th overall in 2021, that he’s a winning contributor amidst his revitalization season.
The roster has changed a touch since Hyland’s final season with the Denver Nuggets. Outside of trading Michael Porter Jr. to the Brooklyn Nets for Cam Johnson, the core of Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Aaron Gordon – along with in-house developments, Peyton Watson and Christian Braun – have stuck around.
Michael Malone didn’t trust Hyland, but he’s off to Chapel Hill to coach North Carolina.
To fully understand Hyland’s transformation, it’s important to understand the context behind his tumultuous 1.5 seasons in Denver at the start of his NBA career. In a short span, Hyland went from a promising young bench-scoring spark plug for a rising Nuggets team to a DNP for five consecutive games and eventually traded to the LA Clippers for a pair of future second-round picks at the trade deadline.
“I felt like s– just [hit me] from [the] blindside,” said Hyland to ESPN’s Ohm Youngmisuk.
Hyland was a glistening beam of talent off the bench in Denver, but he didn’t buy into the winning principles the Nuggets and coach Malone sought to build. These struggles are completely normal for a player of Hyland’s archetype. However, they shed light on how quickly things can go from good to bad in the NBA, regardless of the assets invested in the player.
Former Nuggets GM Calvin Booth spoke bluntly about it in a Ringer interview with Kevin O’Connor:
“I knew you couldn’t have two guys that couldn’t guard, and we couldn’t have two guys that were young and kind of more ‘me guys,’” said Booth. “Mike (Porter Jr.) makes $30 million. He’s one of the best shooters in the NBA. So, Bones, there’s no place for you.”
However, Hyland has found balance within his steady home in Minnesota. Part of Hyland’s transformation can be attributed to the context of his career arc. If Hyland didn’t buy into more team-based principles with the Timberwolves that he had struggled to find in Denver and Los Angeles, he would be out of the league.
In Minnesota, Hyland has provided solid team defense and been more calculated with his shot selection and scoring flurries. Still, the playoffs will be the ultimate test of his viability. It’s his chance to prove that he is a vastly different player than he was years ago.
At 6’2”, 160 lbs., Hyland is on the smaller side of the spectrum. Still, his 6’9.25” wingspan can provide a bit more defensive insulation. If anything, Denver could expose his lack of girth and muscle in the matchup. Hyland doesn’t have an easy matchup defensively.
If the Wolves match Hyland up on Christian Braun, he will have to fight through physicality, be tentative about transition run-outs, and cut off Jokic. If Hyland switches onto Jamal Murray, Murray is more than capable of playing with his back to the basket, getting to his spot, and creating space for a jumper. Hyland could be deployed as a chaser on Cam Johnson, but Johnson is 6’8”.
The Timberwolves will allow Hyland to play more minutes if he performs well; it just depends on how volatile his play is and whether his scoring output can overcome potential defensive holes. Even with Hyland’s improvements, he’s still a tough player to project in the playoffs.
Denver’s brass gave Hyland the harsh truth early, and he has found ways to fight it. Still, it’s staring him in the face again as Saturday’s Game 1 looms.
Dosumu can define himself in the playoffs
For Ayo Dosunmu, the playoffs will provide him with the opportunity to solidify himself as a winning NBA player and clear up any confusion with his archetype.
The Chicago Bulls drafted Dosunmu, who grew up in the Chicago area and played his college basketball at the University of Illinois. However, he didn’t benefit from an ideal playing environment. Few franchises have been more tumultuously average than the Bulls have been recently. Dosunmu finally joined a contender when the Timberwolves traded for him at this year’s draft deadline.
The box score numbers have been shockingly similar for Dosunmu: His 24 games in Minnesota have been nearly identical to his 45 in Chicago.
The basketball has been vastly different, though. For the first time since the 2021-22 season, Dosunmu has something to play for come mid-April.
The question of whether Ayo Dosunmu is a winning contributor can be tricky, depending on how you decide to analyze the game. If you look at his traditional box-score statistics, he stands out as an uber-efficient role player. He has a true shooting percentage of 59.9%, and he finished this season at a career-high 63%.
However, look deep into catch-all metrics such as RAPM (see Glossary on far right tab), which focuses more on ON/OFFs, prioritization of threes and shots at the rim, and possession-maximizing box score data, such as steals and rebounding. Dosunmu tends to rank much lower than you would expect, given his clear talent.
It’s difficult to measure the game through a single number and ranking. However, when many of the data points RAPM focuses on concern how some of the best teams of recent history – like the Boston Celtics and the Oklahoma City Thunder – have built their rosters and schematics, it becomes more thought-provoking.
Out of 535 NBA players, Dosunmu ranked 422nd.
Dosunmu has more than enough within his game to be an impactful contributor throughout the regular season. His transition value, efficiency, and possession-to-possession stability are enough. His RAPM ranking can point to some of the issues that may haunt him in the playoffs.
Part of it comes down to Dosunmu’s scoring imprint relative to his positional role. Dosunmu is a combo guard who takes a few threes per game. His three-point shot diet is similar to Jaden McDaniels’. The attempts fluctuate game to game, but the volume is fairly low on average. To the eye, Dosunmu operates more as a guard, but a deeper dive reveals he’s more of a wing.
It’s the reason why Dosunmu has been such a tough player to evaluate throughout his career.
He shot a career-high 43.9% from three this season and is a career 38% three-point shooter. However, he attempts only 3.3 threes per game and 5.7 threes per 100 possessions. Dosunmu also holds a three-point attempt rate of .377, meaning that 37.7% of his field goal attempts are threes.
Dosunmu is an efficient three-point shooter. Still, if he’s so efficient, why doesn’t he shoot more threes? It raises the question. Will the Nuggets respect Dosunmu’s three-point jumper and gravity as a spot-up shooter in the first round of the playoffs?
Similar to Hyland, a defensive fit will be vital for Dosunmu. Like Hyland, Dosunmu has been a good team defender for the Timberwolves, but he also doesn’t have a great defensive fit against any Nuggets player. Dosunmu may be better suited to be a chaser on Cam Johnson, given his length and size.
Dosunmu is more likely to see bigger minutes and will have more of a promised spot within the rotation than Hyland, but his volatility could be just as relevant.
Ayo Dosunmu is a vastly different player than he was when he last played in the playoffs in 2021-22. Then, he averaged 4 points per game, shooting 30.8% from the field and 23.1% from three in Chicago’s five-game series loss to the Milwaukee Bucks.
He has also filled a much-needed area within Minnesota’s guard room to finish the season. Dosunmu will still need to make a consistent impact throughout the series for the Timberwolves to take down Denver again.
Ultimately, the guard room has been volatile for the Timberwolves this season. Minnesota is lucky to have more options as it heads into the playoffs, and Dosunmu and Hyland have been instrumental in keeping the team afloat. However, no matter how good the pair has been, the Timberwolves are looking to build a contender, and at a minimum, they need to be viable in the playoffs. That should be the expectation.
