Everyone expected that the Minnesota Timberwolves would miss Anthony Edwards while he was out with lingering lower-body injuries. The results were even worse than anticipated.
In Minnesota’s nine games without Edwards, dating back to their March 17 matchup against the Phoenix Suns, they have had an offensive rating of 110.9 per StatMuse. That’s a drastic contrast from the 117.3 offensive rating that the Wolves hold in the games Edwards has played.
The Timberwolves have had a more involved offense when Edwards has sat. More players have seen increased touches, and usage has been more evenly distributed. That playstyle is more aesthetically pleasing. However, as the sample size has grown and the offensive rating differential has ballooned to -6.4, Minnesota’s ultrareliance on Edwards has become more evident.
Part of the issue has been that many Timberwolves players don’t have enough impact when they see increased usage and must scale up their game.
- Julius Randle is capable of being a No. 1 scoring option, but he cannot effectively handle the increased defensive pressure.
- Jaden McDaniels is the team’s best example of someone who can scale up. He’s averaging 18.7 points per game when Edwards has sat. However, when he plays with a more offensive role, his defense tends to taper off.
- Donte DiVincenzo and Naz Reid have not been able to scale their games and have remained in similar roles. The duo depends on others to set up their shots and is still heavily reliant on threes.
- Ayo Dosunmu and Bones Hyland‘s scoring impacts from the guard position are far too volatile. They cannot match the impact left by Edwards, despite being Minnesota’s best players at scoring more with increased playing time.
It’s pretty straightforward why the Timberwolves need Edwards to be healthy for their offense to hum. However, it goes deeper than raw starpower.
One of the core reasons Edwards has developed at such a rapid, linear rate throughout his early career is the context of the roster around him.
Early in his career, Edwards had to take on the creation duties because D’Angelo Russell and Karl-Anthony Towns were not as dynamic as the Timberwolves needed them to be. Edwards sprang into action and became the team’s primary shot creator.
Later, Edwards needed to become a more consistent shooting threat as opponents loaded up in the paint on his drives. Edwards responded by shooting a career-high 39.5% with 320 makes from three-point range.
When the Timberwolves suppressed their spacing after adding Julius Randle alongside Rudy Gobert, they needed Edwards to become more fluent in reading the court and to develop as a quick decision-maker. Edwards showcased improvements, all built around his scoring acumen.
Edwards’ historical, traceable development as an offensive threat has been straightforward. He has been able to do everything the Timberwolves have asked of him. Many of the issues with their offense have stemmed from the surrounding cast and lingering issues within the infrastructure.
Ever since the Timberwolves acquired Rudy Gobert from the Utah Jazz during the 2022 off-season, Edwards has been under increased pressure. Opponents have continuously blitzed Edwards in ball screens, and play heavy gap against him on all above-the-break dribble possessions. Ultimately, he has had to work overtime to get Minnesota’s offense to churn.
The Timberwolves have missed Edwards during his injury absence. Even with Edwards in the lineup, there are still numerous questions about the team’s offense.
Perplexingly, the team has enough talent to get through the regular season and sustain an offense. The 20 games that the Timberwolves have played without Edwards have tanked the offensive rating, but they still sit at 115.2 today, which ranks 12th in the NBA.
The uncertainty still lies within this roster’s future and playoff viability. The Timberwolves have reached the Western Conference Finals in back-to-back seasons and are in the midst of the most successful stretch of winning basketball in franchise history. The outcome has been incredible, but the context showcases how murky the future may be.
Minnesota’s 2024-25 conference finals run is undisputed. Their series sweep over the Phoenix Suns, and the comeback series win over the Denver Nuggets were incredible displays of basketball nirvana. The Wolves’ Western Conference Finals loss to the Dallas Mavericks was frustrating. It exposed the team’s inexperience, end-of-game malpractice, and Karl-Anthony Towns’ flaws in a deep playoff run.
However, last year’s series win over a deeply flawed Los Angeles Lakers roster, and the Golden State Warriors with an injured Stephen Curry, didn’t produce as satisfying an outcome despite the pair of series wins for a second season in a row.
If anything, it exposed the limits of Minnesota’s offense and roster build. The team can only get so far with Julius Randle as Anthony Edwards’ second option, and with Rudy Gobert’s negative offensive impact and production.
Edwards has his defensive warts and inconsistencies throughout the regular season. However, he’s dominated in the postseason. Edwards’ 26.9 points per game in 42 career playoff games ranks 13th in NBA history amongst all players who have played 25 or more games. As much as you can try to make an argument that it could be an Edwards issue, his team around him has consistently let him down.
The Timberwolves made a successful pivot when they acquired Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, and Joan Beringer in exchange for Karl-Anthony Towns’ albatross contract. Still, Randle has been just as disappointing as Towns was in the WCF.
If the Timberwolves don’t want to rely on Edwards as much as they do, they will need to make serious roster changes. Chris Finch has done a good job of creating opportunities, but there is only so much they can do, given Minnesota’s inherent offensive flaws.
There will be a microscope under the Timberwolves as they drag into the playoffs. They are bound to make some tweaks due to impending cap sheet decisions, free agents, and an aging roster. However, much of it will come down to their first-round result. If the Wolves cannot find playoff success, it only makes sense to continue building their roster around Anthony Edwards’ offensive skill set.
