People had been anticipating Anthony Edwards’ return in Dallas. The Minnesota Timberwolves star had been out six games, dating back to their March 15 loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Here was an opportunity for him to return and beat the living daylights out of the Dallas Mavericks, who the Wolves should have eliminated in the playoffs two years ago.
So, you can imagine people’s surprise when Mike Conley started in place of Edwards against the Mavs. The reason Edwards missed the start felt on-brand for a global superstar who’s still a kid at heart.
He had to use the can.
Minnesota’s 124-94 dusting of the Mavericks on Monday night is a reminder of each team’s divergent path since they met in the Western Conference two years ago. Dallas inexplicably traded Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers. That trade will allow the Lakers to stay relevant after LeBron James retires, while the Mavs enter rebuilding mode with Cooper Flagg.
Meanwhile, the Timberwolves traded Karl-Anthony Towns to stay under the second apron. In doing so, they regressed from a 56-win team competing for the No. 1 seed in the West to a 49-win team that settled for the sixth seed. Last year’s team reached the same place as the 2023-24 version, but with a less talented roster.
Two years ago, Vegas favored Minnesota against the Mavericks; the Oklahoma City Thunder beat them in five games last year. The Timberwolves missed a rare opportunity to win a championship in 2023-24. Last season, the Thunder reminded them of how far they have to go.
The Wolves ran it back this year, partially because there weren’t many viable options to overhaul the roster. They also felt they were close and wanted to see if they could advance past the Western Conference Finals for the third time.
Perhaps it’s unsurprising that the Timberwolves are in a similar place as last year. They will finish with around 50 wins, and could end up in the sixth seed again. They likely won’t fall into the play-in tournament, which pits the 10th through 7th seeds against each other. However, they’ve created a difficult pathway for themselves again.
Oklahoma City and the San Antonio Spurs have locked down the top two seeds in the West. However, there’s a glut of teams sitting between the second and sixth seeds, as there have been all year.
In a favorable but unlikely scenario, the Wolves could play the Houston Rockets as the three-seed. Minnesota is +4500 to win a championship, a long shot. However, Houston is +7500. If the Wolves and Lakers (+3000) are at the edge of the fringe contenders, the Rockets are asking someone to release them into the vacuum of space.
Conversely, the Wolves could drop to the sixth seed and face a similar path to last year, assuming the Lakers hold onto the sixth seed. The oddsmakers will favor LA. Still, they did last season, and Minnesota beat them in five games.
However, nearly every other matchup is significantly more challenging. The Timberwolves easily could face the Denver Nuggets (+800) in the first round, a bona fide contender. That’s a tough matchup for the Wolves, even if they get home-court advantage.
Even if they get past Denver, a fringe contender, Oklahoma City (+130) and San Antonio (+450) will be significant favorites over the Timberwolves. Odds are that the Wolves will have to overhaul their roster this season, as they did two years ago, only this time it isn’t because of cap restrictions.
In the immediate term, the Timberwolves have multiple players who are playing through injuries and face a Sophie’s choice. Do they push their players to play at the end of the season to get the highest possible seed? Or do they rest them to allow them to recover and prevent injury, knowing they can only do so much to influence seeding?
Playing everyone may give them a more favorable matchup. However, they risk players getting re-injured or not playing healthy enough to make a meaningful impact in the playoffs. Even if they aren’t on the injured list, many of their players could benefit from extra rest before the playoffs.
However, if they rest players, it increases the likelihood that the Timberwolves face Denver in the first round. Still, they would be playing them at full strength. They’d have a better shot at beating the Nuggets while fully healthy, and they don’t have to be worried that Anthony Edwards, Ayo Dosunmu, or Jaden McDaniels miss time in a crucial series.
It’s an unfortunate decision resulting from their inability to beat losing teams like the Sacramento Kings, Utah Jazz, and New Orleans Pelicans. Doing so would have vaulted them into the third seed and made it easier to rest players.
Even with a similar team to last year, the Timberwolves can’t play Mike Conley, 38, as much as they did last season. Monday’s game against Dallas was a reminder of how much each team has changed since they last played two years ago. It also highlights how much the Wolves need Edwards, and that they could undergo another monumental change in the offseason if they stall out in the playoffs this year.
