Terrence Shannon Jr. played 28 minutes and 27 seconds against the San Antonio Spurs in the Minnesota Timberwolves’ 115-108 Game 3 loss at home. In those minutes, he had a game-best plus-19 despite scoring just five points, snagging two rebounds, and dishing two assists. San Antonio outscored the Wolves by seven when Shannon was off the court. That’s a 26-point swing, the largest plus-minus swing in the game.
In a single game, plus-minus ratings can typically be skewed by a large run or a flurry of made threes. Therefore, they can be less reliable due to a massive points swing. However, there seems to be something to the idea that Shannon is a factor in Minnesota’s best lineups against the Spurs, despite his lack of box-score statistics. The through line between the lineups is fairly simple.
The Wolves played small.
Minnesota’s three worst lineups from game three all included multiple bigs. The starting five played just 4:13 together before Mike Conley was pulled from the game; in those minutes, they went minus-10. A lineup with Reid and Randle flanked by Anthony Edwards, Ayo Dosunmu, and Jaden McDaniels logged 6:17 of game play.
The lineup data is limited, but it appears that going smaller and spreading the floor is an option against the Spurs. The idea of going small admittedly sounds counterintuitive, given that the Spurs employ Victor Wembanyama, a player who even affects McDaniels with his height.
“When I see myself on the film next to him,” said McDaniels, “he look tall as hell.”
However, the proof of concept lies with Shannon. The Edwards, Reid, Shannon, McDaniels, and Randle lineup played 3:31 together and posted an impressive 41.1 positive net rating while outscoring the San Antonio three.
Replace Edwards with Dosunmu, and that five-man lineup logged 5:23 of play together, outscoring the Spurs by 2 and a +22.2 net rating. A super small-ball lineup of Edwards, Dosunmu, Shannon, McDaniels, and Randle outscored San Antonio by 1 in 1:05 of game play; the same lineup with Reid replacing Randle was outscored by only 1.
Unfortunately, the key denominator is the lack of Gobert in these lineups. Ironically, only three games after Gobert had potentially the best series of his illustrious career, it sounds crazy to remove him from the floor. However, in the 16:47 that Gobert sat, the Wolves were only outscored by one point. They played effective defense, posting a rating of 105.9, compared to 121.5 with Gobert on the floor.
The defensive side of the floor improvement seems contradictory to the season-long truth that Minnesota’s defense falls apart without Gobert. However, the Spurs have forced Gobert to become a perimeter defender. They’ve drawn him far out of the paint to cover Wembanyama, and Wembanyama’s shooting has been superior to Nikola Jokic’s in Round 1. While Gobert has excelled this year as an isolation defender, having him pulled so far away from the rim to guard a dangerous shooter conflicts with his track record as an excellent rim defender, which helps collapse in.
That mental battle has caused Minnesota’s rotations to break down. It has also occasionally led to late shots and to some open threes for Wembanyama and others on the floor as Gobert collapses into the paint to help. Defensively, the smaller lineup is simply able to switch, rotate, and defend the perimeter more efficiently, as shown by the defensive rating in Game 3.
Randle has also shown an ability to match Wembanyama’s height with physicality. Webanyama can use his length and height to get into position and create open looks. Randle has been able to body him, force him off his spots, and better position the defense.
Offensively, the small-ball switch is easier to explain: Edwards, Dosunmu, McDaniels, Shannon, Randle, and Reid are six players who the Wolves can use to all shoot at a minimum above-average clip. That spreads the Spurs defense out and puts Webanyama in the same position Gobert sees: a perimeter defender, with his instincts telling him to collapse and help the paint. That creates open shots off Minnesota’s drive-and-kick plays as Webnanyma slides in to help.
The other main advantage with these six players is that all of them are capable of putting the ball on the floor and driving into the heart of the defense at a high level. That creates a scenario where the first player drives, draws in a second defender, and can kick it to the second player, who can then drive and bring in another defender before kicking it, effectively spinning the defense into a rotation cycle. While the Spurs get the stop on the play below, you can clearly see the problem the spread offense, drive-and-kick offenses, and other offenses can pose to a defense.
One missed rotation, and these actions can turn into a layup or open three. It should also be noted that this offense is exhausting to play against. Player after player attacks the defense, which is constantly scrambling to recover. For a Spurs team that doesn’t have the same depth as the Wolves, the strategy could also be to wear them down.
Alas, the same thing could be said for the Wolves. Playing small is exhausting. Randle’s physicality likely has a limited battery life before it falls off, as does the attacking nature of a drive-and-kick offense. With Edwards, Dosunmu, and Reid all coming off injuries or dealing with current ailments, the fear is that the Wolves become exhausted, or a key player reinjures himself.
That problem might be the best part of playoff basketball, though, a constant chess match between coaches weighing the pros and cons of every decision. Now it’s Minnesota’s turn to adjust after the Spurs took Game 3. However, if Shannon’s Game 3 performance is any indicator, it’s that he must be a key piece in a smaller rotation to force the Spurs to adjust next.
