Locks
Cincinnati Bearcats -6.5 (-110): Cincinnati is for real, and they have Memphis coming to town this week. The Bearcats currently have the best defense aside from Georgia in the country. And to top it off, the Bearcats remember the end of last season, losing back-to-back games against Memphis which cost them the conference title. This is not the same strong Memphis team however, with Kenneth Gainwell and Damonte Coxie opting out of the season. Their bad defense is back, though, as they are dead last in yards allowed, which Desmond Ridder will exploit with his arm and legs. Look, if Cincy can hold SMU to under two touchdowns on the road, they should have little trouble with a similarly-styled offense and much worse defense. This is my favorite number of the week.
Oklahoma St. -3.5 (-110): We finally get to see the healthy Cowboy trio of Spencer Sanders, Chuba Hubbard, and Tylan Wallace unleashed. They were eased in against Iowa St. last week in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score, 24-21, indicated. Now they get to welcome a weak Texas defense that struggles against balanced attacks to Stillwater, which is never an easy place to play. The surprise of the Big 12 this season so far is probably the Poke defense, which has carried the team up until this point so their offensive trio could return and round them out. This unit proved itself against a big, mobile QB last week, so they should be better prepared for Sam Ehlinger than most teams are. Their physicality will also help them against the big Texas receivers. Watch for late Texas money to push this to -3 flat, which is obviously an even better opportunity. But I’m still confident this is a touchdown or more difference in the end.
North Carolina -7 (-110): I’m back to fully trusting this Tar Heels team and believe they learned valuable lessons from the disaster at Florida St. They can’t let their guard down against a scrappy Virginia squad at Virginia, but should know how to avoid that trap now. North Carolina is just too explosive on offense, with the best big-play differential in the country, so I can’t see Virginia staying within a touchdown given they’re the 4th worst team nationally in big-play differential. Brennan Armstrong just doesn’t have the receivers to exploit UNC’s injuries in the secondary, as evidenced by his leading receiver being a tight end. Virginia has lost their three games against high powered offenses by 18, 17 and 17, so the track record is obvious. North Carolina has three more games before the big showdown with Notre Dame, so they’re focused on this game. Covering a touchdown should be doable in this one.
Temple/Tulane over 59 (-110): Last week Temple allowed 41 points to Memphis while Tulane allowed 51 to UCF. Their PPG allowed averages are both north of 35. Neither team has an offense that particularly scares me, although Temple puts up lots of yards, and Anthony Russo has his moments. Tulane is a high variance team this season, but in their games that should see a lot of points, we’ve seen lots of points, especially from the opposing team. So this boils down to strictly being a play against both bad defenses. The weather report for New Orleans is perfect, so I see this game well into the 60s or more.
Degenerates
BYU -29 (-110): I was admittedly scared last week of BYU needing to cover 30 against Texas St. and stayed away. Well they proved that with their makeshift schedule of inferior teams, they understand the value of blowouts. There’s another one brewing here against a terrible Western Kentucky team that narrowly escaped Chattanooga last week at home. Despite Maryland transfer Tyrrell Pigrome at QB offering preseason hope, they have a very soft offense that will get dominated by the physicality of BYU’s defense. If Gunner Romney is back for the Cougars this will get out of hand, but they probably won’t need him. BYU rolls as they continue to try to make the best case possible for an unlikely playoff bid at home tonight.
Coastal Carolina -2.5 (-110): I’m just really enjoying this Chanticleers team as they are a lot of fun. Teal turf, mullets, locker room wrestling matches, and a 4-0 ATS record against FBS opponents will do that for a team. I really think their QB Grayson McCall will shred the Georgia St. pass defense, ranked 3rd worst in the country. Their defense is what really makes the Chants go though, and the unit steps up against high powered offenses, holding Lafayette and Arkansas St. to a combined 50 points (AR St. hung 59 on this GA St. team). Coastal Carolina is the team who’s on a roll, and this kind of number won’t be available on them in the future. I’m taking advantage of the buy low opportunity, even on the road.
Michigan St +24.5 (-110): Attention Gopher fans, Michigan isn’t actually that good. A couple of short fields and big plays made that game look out of hand. Meanwhile Michigan St. lost an ugly one to Rutgers due to seven turnovers, and I expect Mel Tucker to clean those up and veteran QB Rocky Lombardi to continue what was actually decent play in that game. Those lopsided results have caused a market overreaction in this trophy series, which is almost always close. Although Michigan St. is away for this civil war matchup, no fans in the stands should help them limit that home field advantage. This fits a sharp system play on taking the dog when there’s a low total, which sits 52 right now. I expect mean reversion for both teams in a rivalry game, and am happy to get the hook included on the plus side of the key No. 24.
UCF/Houston over 82.5 (-110): Yeah it’s a nosebleed total, pretty crazy right? Who cares at this point with these teams though, particularly UCF. They’ve only played one game this year against a team that boasts an offense like Houston and Dana Holgorsen, a 50-49 affair with Memphis. The comparable games are sparse for a total like this, but I’d also point out that Houston allowed 43 to the only elite offense they’ve faced this year, BYU, and they don’t keep the pedal down like UCF — nobody does. I haven’t seen much resistance in the market to the money coming in on the over all week. That means sharps are both driving the over steam and can’t even find value in the number to justify stepping in front of the under. The weather is perfect, it should be a fun game, I want a degenerative over ticket.
Rice/Southern Mississippi over 59.5 (-110): Southern Miss can’t stop a nosebleed this season, allowing a 7th worst in the nation 43 PPG and 5th worst 499 YPG. Rice, meanwhile, was supposed to be a program on the rise this season, but got off to a ridiculously unfortunate start with that infamous quadruple-doink OT loss. Their offense looked good though against a Middle Tennessee team with a lot of the same issues as Southern Miss, and should be able to run the ball effectively to open up holes for senior QB Mike Collins. If Rice is going to allow points and yards like they did last week (34 points in regulation and 425 total yards), Jack Abraham and Co. should score at will. When this total dipped on Wednesday, it got bought up immediately, and I expect no defense and lots of points.
Tiny Nick is 86-59 (+20.8 Units) since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks.
