Locks
San Jose St. @ San Diego St. -9.5 (-110): San Jose St. as a 2-0 contender in the Mountain West is about as big of a mirage as you can get. Their wins at home against Air Force (1-score game in the 4th quarter) and New Mexico (2-score game in the 4th) were unconvincing wins against soft opponents.
San Diego St. is still the upper level of this conference, and they’ve shown off their typically stout defense in allowing 13 points total in two games. San Jose St. really doesn’t try to run the football, and certainly won’t be able to against this Aztec defense. That should lead to a big time of possession advantage for San Diego St. as they unleash a rushing offense that averages 7 yards per carry and 347 per game, while scoring 36 PPG.
Getting the Aztecs here at single digits is an absolute steal.
Degenerates
BYU/Boise St. Over 61 (-110): This is a good spot to buy relatively low on a total that dipped this week due to weather concerns. The forecast in Boise has cleared up, and the number is on the rise. But given that it’s a Friday night game instead of Saturday game, you get an opportunity to avoid an extra day of public steam driving it up.
We’ve seen the power of BYU’s offense, averaging over 44 PPG, plus their desire to pad win margins and stats for Zach Wilson. That should continue against a Boise defense that got too much credit early, and then had 30 hung on them by Air Force. Their offense is strong again though, with 12 touchdowns in their first two games, including with the backup QB last week. While this may not be a true shootout, you can guarantee at least one of these squads will score in the 40’s, so anything less than that key number of 63 is very attractive.
Tiny Nick is 93-69 (+18.2 Units) since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks.
