Locks
NFL – Bills -2.5 vs. Steelers (-110):
Josh Allen, Cole Beasley, Stefon Diggs and Co. have been on an absolute roll as of late while the Pittsburgh Steelers have been trending downward slightly even though their record is still tied for the best in the NFL. I expect those trends to continue today when the Steelers go into chilly Buffalo.
I don’t love writing off the Steelers just yet, but I’m ready to take Buffalo in this primetime matchup. With no Bud Dupree (torn ACL), I also think the over is very intruding in this one. It’s coming in at 48.5 right now and these two teams can both score when necessary — and today it will be.
NFL – Cardinals -2 @ Giants (-110):
With home-field advantage mattering much less than in a normal season, a dinged up quarterback (or backup quarterback) and no Saquon Barkley since early this season, the New York Giants are still only 2 point dogs to the hot and cold Arizona Cardinals. I like the Cards in this one even after the Giants beat the Seattle Seahawks.
I think that game was a fluke and the Cardinals are ready to play the Giants after going through a rough patch in their schedule. Monitor the injury report but Kyler Murray and Arizona should be able to take care of business today.
NCAA Basketball – Richmond +8 @ West Virginia (-110):
West Virginia has been playing with fire in their last two games, needing comebacks against inferior teams. This might be the spot they get burned, as Richmond is far superior to the Georgetown and North Texas teams the Mountaineers struggled with. The Spiders are fresh off their own comeback as they almost got caught looking ahead to this game, but they’re a great shooting team (49% from the field) that can frustrate the strong West Virginia defense.
They also generate a lot of steals and turnovers, a result of their experienced guards that will definitely have the advantage over West Virginia’s backcourt. Richmond might well be a live dog in this one, but I definitely see it as a close game that I’m glad to get three possessions worth of points in.
NCAA Basketball – Northern Illinois vs. Iowa Over 151 (-110):
This total is like if the oddsmakers accidentally plugged in the Iowa football team’s scoring metrics. After their 105 point outburst on Friday night, the Hawkeyes are now averaging 99.4 PPG with no signs of letting up. Northern Illinois won’t offer much resistance as they allow 76.5 PPG, and allowed 89 to Pitt in their only other power conference game — which is 11 points over Pitt’s season average.
At this point it’s almost a given that we’ll see Iowa at or around the century mark in every game, which means it really doesn’t take much production from the other team to get over this number. That’s as simple a handicap as I need to pull the trigger on this over.
Degenerates
NFL – Washington +3 @ San Francisco (-110):
Alright, somehow this Washington Football Team is no longer a joke. Even though I am so stressed out every time Alex Smith goes out on the field, he really is dangerous to be paired with this young defense. We saw what they did against Pittsburgh last week, so why can’t they match that effort against a San Francisco 49ers team that has struggled all year besides when playing the Los Angeles Rams?
Nick Mullens is going to have to show out a little bit with his elite receiving core if Washington doesn’t cover this one and I just don’t like his chances. Expect this young Washington defense to be ready to go and to continue with the momentum they’ve gained the past few weeks.
NCAA Basketball – San Francisco (-3) @ California (-110):
This is a spot where I just have to roll with the hot team at a short price against a reeling team. USF had as impressive a win as you’ll see against Long Beach last time out, winning by 45 points. It continues their trend of steamrolling teams in recent games, which is exactly what has happened to Cal in their last two.
This looks like another trouble spot for the Bears. I don’t see them being able to contend with Jamaree Bouyea and the Dons backcourt that locks down defensively and generates a lot of steals. Cal struggles with turnovers already, losing over 16 of them every game, and that will be magnified in this matchup. I expect another comfortable Dons win here so I’m happy to lay the points.
NCAA Basketball – Mercer (-5) @ Georgia Southern (-110):
Mercer is definitely in contention for best team you’re not paying any attention to so far this year. They’ve had some COVID scheduling problems, but when they are able to play they have a 10-point win over Georgia Tech that keeps looking better, and a 17-point blowout over a quality Georgia State team. What I like most is how they share the ball, ranking 14th in the country in assists.
Georgia Southern’s only game against a quality opponent resulted in a 32-point loss to Davidson. While I don’t think this gets out of hand like that, Mercer should have an easy time in this one. The Southern Conference has had a lot of great teams lately, and Mercer looks like another one so buy relatively low on them here.
Tiny Nick is 55-26(+26.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks.
