Locks
NCAA Basketball – UNC-Asheville @ Chattanooga -5.5 (-110):
I liked this Chattanooga team last year in a tough Southern Conference, and have liked what I’ve seen from them so far this year too. The addition of transfer guard Malachi Smith – who’s doing it all for this team right now – has really helped with the growth of returning star guard David Jean-Baptiste and forward Stefan Kenic. They’ve played a relatively tough schedule with several road games, but are still undefeated straight up and ATS.
Asheville, conversely, has not played a tough schedule, and this will be their first true road game. Against that weak schedule, this is a team with a negative assist-to-turnover ratio and has serious struggles from the free-throw line, not a winning combination on the road against a sneaky good Mocs squad. I’m laying this relatively short price on the much better team at home.
Southern @ Alabama-Birmingham -15 (-110):
This UAB team looks really dangerous in the C-USA this year: a deep team with a legit guard in Michael Ertel and center in Trey Jemison. They’ve been blowing out the weak teams on their schedule by an average of over 29 points, and are 4-1 ATS this season with the lone loss by one point. After proving it on the road against a tough East Tennessee team, the Blazers get another cupcake with Southern.
This Jaguars team really struggles to score, shooting only 37% from the floor and 27% from deep. I think UAB will be able to continue shutting them down as they have with other teams all year. They have the 5th best field goal percentage defense nationally and allow only 56 PPG. This should be an easy win for the Blazers, and I think it will be by something in the 20s, so lay the number here.
Degenerates
Mercer +4.5 @ Georgia State (-110):
What’s not to like about this Mercer team? I keep talking up the Southern Conference and for good reason, and this is one of several dangerous teams. Ross Cummings is a sniper, shooting a ridiculous 53.8% from deep, and forward Felipe Haase averages a double-double while also shooting 48.5% from three.
What I like most about this Bears team is how they share the ball, assisting on 65% of their field goals as the 15th best assist team in the country. They’re a gritty squad too, coming back from 16 down to win at Georgia Southern on Sunday. They’ve also beaten Georgia State already this year by 17 points. And while point differentials in rematch games so far this year have seen big swings, I can’t pass up getting this many points with a team that I really like this season.
Tiny Nick is 61-28 (+31.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks.
