Locks
NBA (1 Unit) NY Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs -2.5 First Quarter (+100; Odds via DraftKings): 7:30 PM CT on ABC
Yes, it was the worst collapse in NBA Finals history, but at least it started well for San Antonio? I’m sure that’s little solace to the Spurs, but it’s a very consistent theme throughout this series and these playoffs, and I think they get out to another strong start tonight. San Antonio has held first quarter leads of 8, 9, 11, and 19 points in this series, continuing their first quarter dominance throughout the postseason. Not surprising for the league’s best first quarter team this season, with an average margin at home of plus-4.1 points. I for one believe that the Spurs do get off the mat for this game, at least early on, and continue this first quarter dominance we’ve seen all year.
Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Devin Vassell Over 2.5 Made Three’s (-110; Odds via Fanduel)
This prop was carrying plus juice until today, as everyone has realized the shooting groove that Vassell is in. It was a poor Game 1 for the Spurs guard, but since then all he’s done is go 11-for-19 from deep while hitting the over on this number each game. The Spurs are not going to be shy about launching three’s so he’ll get his volume, and I think this number is very reachable.
Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Dylan Harper Over 24.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via Fanduel)
Harper needs to be heavily involved, especially since he’s getting most of his minutes against a Knicks bench that has been very ineffective. With an average of 25.8 on this prop and 3-1 record to the over in this series, Harper is a sneaky-good secret weapon that seems to have supplanted 6th-Man of the Year winner Keldon Johnson in minutes and usage.
Double Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Jalen Brunson Over 2.5 Made Three’s (+110; Odds via Fanduel)
If books are going to keep offering plus money on this number, then I’m forced to keep biting. Brunson finally went over in both games at home after getting hooked despite large volume in Games 1 and 2. It might be a result of home cooking as he shot three’s 1.4 percentage points higher at home this season, or maybe his knee injury dampened his shooting in San Antonio. Either way, improved efficiency overall in Games 3 and 4 has me thinking he’s on the right track and ready to cash this again tonight.
MLB (1 Unit) Miami Marlins/Pittsburgh Pirates Over 9 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 3:05 PM CT on MLB.TV
Pirates home overs, meet Marlins road overs. It was an easy one last night, even with two above-average starters on the mound, so I expect this fun confluence of trends to pay off again here. When a 26-11 trend merges with a 22-6-3 trend, and the number simply can’t be adjusted dramatically because it’s baseball, things seem almost too easy.
I think it will be here, as Bubba Chandler gets another start for Pittsburgh despite his troubles. Especially at home where he’s carrying a 5.79 ERA and 1.59 WHIP, and faces this Marlins team that is really hot at the plate. But Miami is appearing to go with a bullpen game today, and they only have two lefties in the pen so Pittsburgh’s elite hitting against righthanders will get to shine. With a breeze blowing out of PNC Park on a warm day, expect the ball to jump and this game to fly over the total.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Lynx Team Total Over 86.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on CBS
I’ll be watching this until the NBA finally tips, and then flipping back and forth because it’s such a compelling matchup. Too bad that Napheesa Collier isn’t scheduled to return until next week, but the Lynx haven’t needed her to rack up the league’s best offensive efficiency mark. They can score on anyone, and I have serious questions about this Las Vegas defense.
The Aces are only 8th in points allowed and defensive efficiency, both of which drop to 13th in home games. Visitors to Michelob Ultra Arena are scoring 92.5 PPG, 1.104 points per possession, are 3-1 over this total, and the Aces are yet to host a top-5 offensive efficiency team. That’s just shocking, especially since I’m never that highly functional in Vegas, and the shock of this elite Lynx offense coming to town should keep the trend going. The Aces score so well that they should either push or drag the Lynx over this total, but I think this is the best way to approach tonight’s heavyweight clash.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) LA Sparks Team Total Over 89 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on AZFamily
Speaking of teams that can’t stop a nosebleed at home, this Mercury team is defensively challenged when they play in Phoenix. It doesn’t help the numbers that the Lynx went in and dropped 111 points on them two weeks ago, but ranking dead last in points allowed and defensive efficiency in home games is saying something.
Now they have to contend with the up-tempo and high octane Sparks offense when they’re fresh off a long road trip. The Sparks already went to Phoenix and put up 97 points in the first meeting this season, so they know how to take advantage of this defense. Even without that blowout by the Lynx, this Mercury team is still allowing 91.5 PPG at home, and I think the combination of tired legs and an offensive juggernaut from LA will send the visitors over this total again.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 18-19 (-0.04 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
