Locks
NCAA Basketball – Washington @ Utah -7 (-110):
This Washington team is such a far cry from the great team two years ago that won the Pac-12 conference regular season. Now they just look lost, especially after falling at home to UC Riverside by 15 points. Having star guard Nahziah Carter on suspension definitely does not help.
Utah is a very young team and probably needs another year to develop before challenging for the Pac-12 title, but they’re led by forward Timmy Allen, quietly one of the best players in the conference. And we should see expanded roles this year for Riley Battin and Alfonso Plummer as well. That trio gives me enough confidence to fade this bad Huskies team. This line has been static from its opening, so jump on it before the public figures out just how bad the Huskies really are and it goes up.
NCAA Basketball – Western Illinois/Iowa Over 155 (-110):
There is just no way I’m stepping in front of an under when this Iowa offense is involved. Luka Garza is on a mission to win the Wooden Award, averaging 33.5 PPG so far and fueling the Hawkeyes to 200 points in their two outings. I expect them to be around the century mark again tonight with this Western Illinois team coming to town.
The Leathernecks have a lot of players back from last year’s team that played in a lot of shootouts, allowing 85-plus points in 13 of their games. It’s simple: Iowa wants to show off their offensive firepower, and in doing so has allowed both their lowly opponents to score enough to get over this number in both their games. When one team hangs 100, an over ticket is usually pretty easy to cash.
NCAA Basketball – Nebraska-Omaha @ Drake -8.5 (-110):
This Drake team is a fantastic sleeper candidate to keep an eye on in what should be a very good Missouri Valley this season. This is a deep team with a lot of upperclassmen, and one of their best do-it-all players, guard Garrett Sturtz, doesn’t even start. They’ve already won both games this season by double digits, including by 10 over Kansas State, and now are getting their first home game against a bad Omaha team should be a fairly easy task for them.
I haven’t seen anything remotely impressive out of Omaha in their four games, with a lone win coming by one point over Middle Tennessee. Omaha fell by 12 on a neutral floor to an Abilene Christian team that plays a similar style to Drake, but with less talent, leading me to believe it will be smooth sailing for Drake. I don’t think the market is tuned in to how sneaky good this Drake team is yet and I see another double-digit win, so laying less than that feels like an absolute bargain.
Degenerates
NCAA Football – Air Force/Utah State Over 51 (-110):
When this total opened at 48.5 it made no sense to me, and even after the early sharp action pushed it to 51 I’m still eager to take the over. We only have a one-game sample size to judge Utah St. at anything close to full strength this season due to COVID, and that’s the last game when they rolled up 452 yards and 41 points.
I believe this total is factoring in too much of the rest of the Aggies season where the offense was abysmal before getting QB Andrew Peasley into the lineup. Utah St. still can’t stop anyone though, allowing 203 rushing YPG, which is the wrong weakness to have against the Air Force triple-option that leads the country in rushing offense. I see Utah St. being able to exploit the Falcons defense with their dual-threat QB the way Boise did, while also getting gashed by Air Force’s up-tempo ground game. This total is far too low on a clear night in Logan.
Tiny Nick is 34-18 (+14.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks.
