Locks
MLB (1 Unit) Minnesota Twins/Arizona Diamondbacks Over 9.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 2:15 PM CT on Peacock
The drastic splits of ice cold and red hot stretches with this Twins lineup need to be studied, but when they’re hot you just have to roll with it. June has been a hot month, with an average of 6.1 runs per game so far, but also allowing 6.0 runs per game is how the Twins have taken over as the league’s best team to the over, along with second-best on the road. With their hitting and pitching where it is right now, I’m expecting another today.
After 14 and 24 runs in the first two games of this series, there’s no reason to think anything different will happen here. Not with Mike Paredes getting the start, who won’t pitch very deep before giving way to the league’s worst bullpen. And Arizona is trotting out a rookie here in Jose Cabrera, plus their bullpen is nothing special, so we should see runs all game long from two teams hitting very well right now.
WNBA (0.75 Unit) Washington Mystics @ Minnesota Lynx -13.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on NBA TV
Credit to the Mystics for being fairly competitive lately and even shocking the Liberty on Friday night. But I just don’t see this going well for them against a Lynx team that is enjoying blowing everyone out that they can. Minnesota has been insanely dominant during this 11-1 straight up run, as their wins have been by an average of 19.1 points per game. Take their two wins over Golden State who always plays them tough out of the equation and they’re beating teams by 22.3 points per game.
Oddsmakers just can’t make the number high enough for them, as the league’s best ATS team is crushing the spread by 9.9 points on average this season. Washington tends to get blown out when they face top competition on the road, with 3 losses by 20+ points against upper-level opponents. At just 12th in offensive efficiency this season, which gets worse on the road, the Mystics just don’t have the firepower to keep pace with what is by far the league’s best offense. And the fact that the Lynx are also the best defense really helps to widen the gap, and I think it creates another blowout win tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 17-11 (+2.55 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
