Locks
MLB (1 Unit) LA Dodgers/Minnesota Twins Over 9.5 (+100; Odds via Fanduel): 6:40 PM CT on MLB.TV
Despite yesterday’s surprising pitching performance, the Twins are still the league leader in cashing overs, so I expect them to get back on track tonight. They’ll send Zebby Matthews to the mound, and the league’s worst bullpen, to face the league’s best offense. It’s a Dodgers lineup that is due for positive regression after a couple of lackluster games, and they hit righties like Matthews better than anyone.
But don’t discount what the Twins will be able to contribute here, as LA sends out arguably it’s worst starter. Picking up Eric Lauer was a questionable move that has been ok so far, but signs of early-season Lauer are showing back up. It was earlier this year that Minnesota tagged him for 7 earned runs, and the Twins roster is batting a collective .339 with a 1.094 OPS against him. I think this is a game where both teams get back to their usual selves, and that means plenty of runs to clear this total.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Boston Red Sox/Colorado Rockies Over 11.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:40 PM CT on MLB.TV
This total is a must-bet to the over simply based on the weather conditions tonight. It will be warm at Coors Field with a significant wind blowing out to dead center, perfect hitting and scoring conditions no matter what teams take the field. Boston’s offense has certainly struggled this season, but oddly have been much better on the road and this might be the best road situation they’ll get all season.
Facing Ryan Feltner, whose home starts are averaging 13.3 runs, plus the league’s second-worst bullpen, I have to expect them to contribute their share tonight. And Colorado just needs to start converting baserunners into runs, as they’re 9th in baseball for average against lefties like Boston starter Jake Bennett, but struggle with their weighted metrics. The conditions tonight should help with that, and I think these teams can find their way over what is a discounted Coors total given the situation.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Angel Reese Alt Over 12.5 Rebounds (+115; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on WANF
We’re breaking new ground here, as I can confidently say that I’ve never recommended a WNBA alternate rebounding prop before. But this is too good to pass up, and Reese should be in a position to dominate the glass in this game. She comes in off consecutive games against Indiana who is the best rebounding team in the league and holds her in check, so that helps to hold down tonight’s number.
But Toronto is the complete opposite situation, as the Tempo are dead last in rebounding rate this season. They just don’t have much size to compete with Reese down low, which is why she logged 17 boards in the first meeting this season on the second-fewest minutes she’s played all year. If you want to get spicy and keep going up the ladder with this prop I can’t disagree, but I’ll just recommend this first rung since books know the situation here and have heavily juiced her standard prop.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Phoenix Mercury/Indiana Fever Over 177.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on USA Network
These are two teams that are just average when it comes to cashing overs, but this is a spot where I think you have to follow the steam. The over has been bet up a couple of points coming into tonight, which is probably good news for the status of Caitlin Clark who is questionable, but monitor her status regardless. With her, Indiana should continue this hot streak they’re on in the last 5 games, averaging 98.6 PPG in that stretch.
The Fever can easily torch a Phoenix squad that ranks 11th in defensive efficiency, and has been awful all season against upper level competition. But the Mercury have far too much talent on their roster to keep playing this poorly, and should be able to score against an Indiana defense that has also given up 97.0 PPG in that same 5-game stretch. This being a nationally televised game also helps to boost scoring, and don’t call me crazy for that take because it’s real, so look to the over here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 15-11 (+0.72 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
