Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Jacob Misiorowski Under 3.5 Hits Allowed (+100; Odds via Fanduel): 6:15 PM CT on MLB.TV
There’s certainly a temptation to just keep riding the strikeouts prop with The Miz, but I’d be careful with that. His strikeouts dip considerably on the road compared to at home, and actually average 8.5 per game which is tonight’s K prop. The Braves don’t strike out a ton, but this lineup is significantly shorthanded without Ronald Acuna and potentially Michael Harris.
So I’d rather go with the under on this hits prop, since The Miz is actually better on the road when it comes to ERA and opponent batting average allowed, with that checking in at a paltry .131 average. This guy is amazing, and I have to get involved somehow whenever he takes the mound, but this feels like the safer play to me and at a good return too.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Texas Rangers Team Total Under 3.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 7:05 PM CT on MLB.TV
The Rangers really shouldn’t be favored against anyone in their current form, but they are because Jacob deGrom is starting tonight. What that does is bump up their team total even in a low-total game, and I’m looking to pounce on that opportunity because this team just can’t hit. After watching them flail around against terrible Twins pitching, not getting over this total in any of the three games this week, I’m more convinced than ever.
Texas is 28th in scoring and their theoretically strong lineup is riddled with injuries, plus they’re playing at home which is where runs go to die as Globe Life has the best under record in the league. It also helps that they’re facing a Padres team with arguably the best bullpen in the game, and a decent starter going tonight in Randy Vasquez. So with the Rangers having gone under this total in 10 of their past 15 games, I’m looking for another tonight.
WNBA (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Lynx -2.5 @ Golden State Valkyries (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ION
When Napheesa Collier comes back next week, hopefully anyway, this team is going to the moon. There’s just no stopping Olivia Miles right now, and adding Phee to the mix will be deadly. Anyway, I’m a believer in this team regardless of Collier’s status, and I think they have an opportunity to keep rolling in this one, even though Golden State is a tough matchup for them.
Even though the Valkyries are much improved this season, the Lynx have never lost to them, including the 87-84 victory earlier this month. The Golden State defense knows how to slow Minnesota down to some extent, but there doesn’t seem to be any stopping the Lynx right now. If I know this team and Cheryl Reeve, they’re on a revenge tour of sorts for not making the Commissioner’s Cup, and when they get motivated they get rolling. They’ve just been too good on the road, with a perfect 7-0 ATS record and +11.2 average ATS margin, so I’ll lay the short number here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 18-10 (+3.25 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
