Locks
NCAA Basketball – Wofford @ Mercer -1.5 (-110):
I really don’t understand this line. Even though Wofford has played a few teams close, two of their wins were against non-D1 opponents and the rest of their schedule is unimpressive. Mercer hasn’t played the toughest of schedules either, but they have knocked off the only power conference team they’ve faced in Georgia Tech.
This Wofford team is very reliant on 3-point shooting volume (over 31 attempts per game) behind guards Storm Murphy and Tray Hollowell. But they don’t shoot at a high enough percentage to keep up with this Mercer offense that scores 83.9 PPG behind 49% shooting from the field. I think the Mercer forward duo of Felipe Haase and Maciej Bender will be too much up front for Wofford and the Bears win this going away.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – Ole Miss/Alabama Under 147 (-110):
I’m not a fan of making under bets “locks” but there are a lot of metrics supporting this as a good bet.
First, Ole Miss is really good defensively: 1st in the country in scoring defense, 8th in field goal percentage defense. And at only 74.7 PPG against weak competition, they struggle on offense as well.
Second, Alabama has a reputation as a fast-paced team, which they are under Nate Oats’ scheme, but they can’t shoot: only 41.6% from the field and 232nd in adjusted field goal percentage. In their games against the strong defenses of Clemson, Stanford, and Western Kentucky, they’re averaging 63 PPG which is 13 below their season average.
Third, there’s a 3:1 ratio of tickets on the over for this game, fueled by the public perception of Alabama’s fast pace. I see a slower game here with a lot of missed shots, so I’m taking the under.
NCAA Basketball – Houston -8 @ Tulsa (-110):
I’m a big fan of this Houston team, and they’re only getting better. Houston is elite defensively, with the 5th best points allowed nationally and 15th in field goal percentage defense. The return of Caleb Mills last game and Marcus Sasser the past two games has helped boost what is probably the deepest backcourt in the country. The Cougars have also been a very profitable team, 5-2 ATS with only 3 total points preventing them from being 7-0.
Tulsa has played better than expected this season, but their guard-heavy rotation will be no match for what Houston brings to this game. My only worry that’s keeping this from being a lock play is Houston might get caught looking ahead to their Sunday game at undefeated SMU, but otherwise, I really like the Cougars here.
Tiny Nick is 82-36 (+45.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks.
