Locks
NBA Summer League (0.5 Unit) Utah Jazz -3.5 vs San Antonio Spurs (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on Prime Video
Be on the lookout for news that Utah might do something weird with Darryn Peterson, just like the Wizards pulled with AJ Dybantsa yesterday. But with Peterson in the lineup, which he should want to help beat the availability concerns, this Jazz team can easily handle San Antonio’s thin roster here. The Spurs are down to RJ Davis and not much else, which has been good enough to beat a couple of the truly awful Summer League teams, but not tonight. Utah should look to make up for a couple of rough losses, and they certainly have the talent and depth to compete at the highest level. With Peterson making more splash plays, I think the Jazz continue to roll and take down a relatively weak Spurs team.
WNBA (0.75 Unit) LA Sparks/Minnesota Lynx Over 182.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on Victory+
With Napheesa Collier still out for the Lynx, along with Kelsey Plum and Cameron Brink still sidelined for LA, you could argue that the three best scoring talents aren’t playing today. No problem in my mind, because the Lynx still have Olivia Miles and Kayla McBride who are red hot after some missed time themselves, plus the Sparks have been extremely well-balanced in their scoring without the two stars.
That balanced scoring for LA should be the difference today after these exact same rosters combined for 182 points a month ago. The Sparks have had all 5 starters score at least 12 points in each of their past 3 games, but they still can’t defend though. The Lynx, who seem to be making up for lost time when Miles was out, should be able to name their score in this game against the league’s worst defense. That bad defense has made LA the league’s best over team though, and with an 8-2 record to the over on the road, another should be coming today.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Olivia Miles Over 20.5 Points (-110; Odds via Fanduel)
With 33 points on Monday, and 31 in the first meeting with LA this season, Miles simply isn’t guardable right now. Not by bad defenses anyway, which is what she gets to exploit today. In her past 8 games she’s averaging 21.5 points per game with a 6-2 record over this number, including facing a couple of the best defenses in the league. The Sparks can’t guard a parked car, so I think Miles has another showcase game today.
Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Nneka Ogwumike Over 17.5 Points (-110; Odds via Fanduel)
Books have adjusted Ogwumike’s prop total for Plum and Brink being out, but since those two were lost to injury, her number has stayed very stable at this level. They’re unwilling to adjust it based on her performances without them for some strange reason, and she’s been a cash machine while averaging 20.0 PPG so I expect another big game in what should be an over environment today.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Golden State Valkyries/Indiana Fever Over 167.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on USA Network
The Valyries are a very good team in just their second year of existence, built primarily on the league’s best defense. Golden State leads the WNBA in defensive efficiency and points allowed by a wide margin, but there is a kryptonite for them. It’s this Fever team, which has managed to score 90 and 88 points on that elite defense in the two meetings so far this season, leading to the over cashing in both games.
Books are being stubborn on their assessment of the Golden State defense, and rolling with the exact same total tonight as they did in those two meetings. I think that’s a mistake, as a great offense tends to beat a great defense these days, and the Fever own the league’s best offense by pure scoring, efficiency, and effective field goal rate. In their past 10 games, either Indiana or their opponent has crossed the 100 point threshold 9 times so things have been wild, and this is a very low number for anything close to that kind of basketball.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 12-11 (-1.99 Units) – Recommend: Probably Fade
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
