Locks
NBA Summer League (0.75 Unit) Detroit Pistons -8.5 vs NY Knicks (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on Prime Video
Apparently when you win an NBA title, there’s no real interest in Summer League the next month. Or at least that’s New York’s approach, as this has been one truly pathetic showing by an awful roster. You really have to know ball to recognize anyone on this Knicks squad, and their performances so far are shockingly bad. I didn’t think it could get worse than scoring 65 points while shooting 28% from the floor in their first game, but then the Knicks went and put up 49 points on 26% shooting.
This team has been held to 12 or fewer points in half their quarters so far in Vegas, just an unreal offensive flop. The Pistons meanwhile have been scoring extremely well with 93 and 103 points in their two games. Anything close to that, or even a fairly significant dropoff, is still enough to pull away from a team that simply cannot put it in the hoop, so look for a blowout this afternoon.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Kahleah Copper Over 19.5 Points (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on NBCSN
The Lynx are going to be facing a highly motivated team here, after Phoenix was the victim of one of the league’s all-time blowouts on Saturday night. I would expect that motivation to stem from their best player in Copper, who has been on a tear lately. Only managing 9 points in that blowout loss broke a streak of 6 straight games with 20-plus points, and a run of 8 times in her past 9 games overall. She’s also very capable of scoring on Minnesota, with 30 and 18 points in the two meetings earlier this season. You can be sure that the starters will get a lot of run in this game no matter what considering how they performed last game, so the opportunity will be there for Copper to clear this total.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) LA Sparks Team Total Over 86.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on USA Network
No Kelsey Plum, no Cameron Brink, no problem apparently for this Sparks team lately. Consecutive 100-plus point outings last week show that this offense is still capable of going off, and they’ve averaged 91.2 points per game without their two stars with a 4-1 record over this total. But without that star power in the lineup, LA gets significantly downgraded in the market and this isolated total becomes a discount opportunity.
I’m also highly suspicious of this Atlanta team right now, as they’ve dropped 6 of 7 and are having trouble defending. Whether those struggles continue, or they get it figured out and run up the score here, either option creates a good opportunity for the Sparks to score and clear this total.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Nneka Ogwumike Over 17.5 Points (-110; Odds via Fanduel)
The veteran still has it. Ogwumike is on fire the past two games with 24 and 25 points on 51.4% shooting to help fuel those 100-point outputs by the Sparks. And the Atlanta defense won’t be able to just focus on her, as LA is getting really well-balanced scoring from their starters without Plum or Brink. The market bumped her prop total up immediately on the news that Plum and Brink would be out for extended time, but it hasn’t adjusted to her averaging 20.2 PPG with them out and I think it should be very reachable tonight.
Degenerates
MLB Home Run Derby (Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN
When you’re looking for a derby pick, because of course you are, one stat reigns supreme. Maximum exit velocity has been the best predictor of derby success, but more specifically, during the 30 days leading up to the event. The two participants that stat fits the best are Junior Caminero at 116.9 mph and Jordan Walker at 116.6 mph. You also want to stay away from the older participants, and you don’t want anyone who ranks at the bottom of the field in any Statcast datapoint. That adds one more player to my list, Royals slugger Jac Caglianone, so these will be my bets tonight.
Junior Caminero (+380)
Jordan Walker (+550)
Jac Caglianone (+750)
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 9-14 (-4.14 Units) – Recommend: Probably Fade
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
