Locks
NCAA Football – Baylor @ Oklahoma -21.5 (-110):
No team has been playing better football over their last three games than Oklahoma, running teams out by an average of 38 points and looking like the team that started the season ranked 5th. I credit this run to the return of RB Rhamondre Stevenson and DE Ronnie Perkins, who served 5-game suspensions and are two of the most dominant players at their positions in the country.
After their game at West Virginia was called off due to COVID, the Sooners will be rested and ready for another opportunity to blow someone out on their road to the Big 12 title game — a win here and they’re in. Baylor has been in close games this season, but never against a team with the firepower and motivation of the Sooners. If they can turn their Bedlam matchup into a 28 point cakewalk, they will have no problem beating Baylor by four touchdowns.
NCAA Football – Clemson -21.5 @ Virginia Tech (-110):
The Clemson revenge tour continues, this time against a team that comes in truly struggling. It sure looked like the Hokies had called it a season in their last game, losing by 33 to a Pitt team that Clemson just boat raced by 35. The transitive property of common opponent can be a dangerous handicapping tool, but in this case I think it shows the direction these teams are headed.
Clemson is on the warpath after having Trevor Lawrence out, the Notre Dame loss, and the FSU cancelation. Now they’re going against a melting down Virginia Tech team that’s 0-3 ATS against ranked opponents this year, has a bottom-20 pass defense, a coach who is 1-5 ATS against top-10 teams, in a primetime game? Dabo loves to rub it in the whole world’s face, and even though this line sits on a strange number for a road favorite, you have to like the spot for the Tigers here.
NCAA Football – Kansas @ Texas Tech over 62.5 (-110):
This has been a very disappointing year for both these teams, which shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise for Kansas. But it does for Tech after their close call against Texas really dampened the mood for their season. At least the Red Raiders have an opportunity for revenge here to wrap up the season, as the lone Big 12 win for Kansas in two years under Les Miles came at their expense.
For that reason I really don’t expect Tech to stop scoring against the dead-last points allowed defense in the country at 49.8 PPG. Ninth worst in the country? Well that would be the Red Raiders at 39.3 PPG allowed. New Kansas QB Miles Kendrick managed to get some offense going last week against TCU, so I expect them to contribute to this total as well. It’s amazing that this total is still below that key number of nine touchdowns because I expect this game to be in the 80s on a clear day in Lubbock.
Degenerates
NCAA Football – Stanford @ Washington -11.5 (-110):
I have a lot of respect for what new Huskies coach Jimmy Lake is doing with a program that Chris Peterson didn’t leave in the best of shape. Washington has a very strong defense, especially against the pass, and complements it with a very balanced offense using a stable of running backs. Stanford is a team that can’t stop the run or the pass, and while QB Davis Mills has shown flashes this season, it’s simply not a good spot for the Cardinal.
They have failed to cover the number in seven straight games, and are 2-12 ATS in their past 14. Additionally, they’re bad as an underdog, 1-6 ATS the past two seasons. And when this line opened at 10, there was no one buying the double-digit dog, instead the sharp money all came in to push this to 11.5. Washington smells an opportunity at a Pac-12 title game with Oregon and USC not wowing anyone, so I’d expect something like their 17 point win over an Arizona team that has a similar style to Stanford.
NCAA Basketball – Arkansas Pine Bluff @ St. Louis -33 (-110):
What do Mississippi Valley St, Chicago St, and Pine Bluff all have in common? They exist in college basketball solely to get run out by whoever they play. So far this season the closest the Golden Lions have kept it is 17 against a sketchy Iowa State team. Their other 3 losses have been by an average margin of 40 points.
I see another loss by something close to that against a St Louis team that I think is a major sleeper candidate. Javonte Perkins and Jordan Goodwin are a backcourt duo to watch this season in the A10, combining for 37.5 PPG and the majority of the assists and rebounds for the Billikens. They powered the team to a 37 point win over SIU-Edwardsville on a 24 point spread, along with a win and cover against a talented but troubled LSU team. A sneaky good team like St. Louis looks for opportunities to make statements, and since everyone beats on Pine Bluff like a redheaded stepchild, this game should be no different.
Tiny Nick is 37-19 (+16.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks.
