Vikings

If the Vikings Want to Win in Chicago, It Will Have to Be With Defense

Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Vikings seek to continue their inexorable march toward missing out on a Top 10 draft pick on Monday night in Chicago – a place where, over the years, Da Bears have treated the Vikings like a baby treats a diaper.

As surely as I just deliberately conflated two George Wendt characters – the lovable Norm Peterson from Cheers and the one-sausage-away-from-a-heart-attack Bob Swerski from “Da Bears!” SNL skits – the Vikings and Bears are mired in mediocrity. That mediocrity will be on full display in prime time in front of a national audience that, let’s face it, is used to witnessing a lot of bad football in 2020. Believe it or not, while the Vikings and Bears aren’t on anyone’s shortlist Super Bowl contenders, they’re actually better than some of the riffraff being passed off as NFL teams this season.

So, what should we make of this Monday Night matchup?

You’ve probably heard by now that the Vikings have won in Chicago this century less often than we hold presidential elections (only four times in 20 games). Given such a miserable track record as well as Kirk Cousins’ occasional penchant for flopping in prime time, it would be understandable if Vikings fans were bracing for the worst again.

However, this is 2020 – where up is down and reality is stranger than fiction. To the dismay of the Tank Truthers in the Vikings fanbase, who want them to run the table with losses and get a better draft pick, this Monday night’s game is quite winnable. By the way, so are the subsequent three games on the Vikes’ schedule. To wit, the Vikings’ next four opponents, starting with the Chicago Bears, have lost a combined 18 straight games. You read that right.

For their part, the Bears (5-4) have dropped three in a row. These aren’t your father’s “Monsters of the Midway.” The Vikings are actually favored by the Vegas sharpies.

So, could Dalvin Cook build on his MVP resume under the bright lights in front of NFL fans nationwide and carry his Vikings to a win? That’s one scenario we can’t rule out. After all, he’s the hottest running back in the league at the moment. Then again, this Bears defense is a top-10 unit by several measures (how do you think they’ve won five games?) and just got done holding Derrick Henry to 68 yards in Tennessee last week. Granted, they allowed Alvin Kamara to gash them for 163 yards from scrimmage the week before that. By the way, this is quite the elite running back gauntlet the Bears find themselves in. Kamara followed by Henry and then Cook. Sheesh!

Cook will need to do all the heavy lifting because the Bears are allowing a 60.2% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks – second-lowest in the league — while rarely blitzing. They’ve permitted just 10 touchdown passes – tied for second-fewest in the league – and only 3.2% of passes against them have resulted in touchdowns (tied for first). Good luck with that, Kirk.

In other words, this doesn’t have the makings of a Vikings’ offensive eruption such as the one we witnessed last week against the lowly Lions.

Another more plausible scenario is that the Vikings – if they win – will do so with their defense. That may seem preposterous on its face, but have you seen this Bears offense in 2020? Matt Nagy’s troops have been shockingly and relentlessly inept.

The Bears are scoring an average of 19.8 points per game – good for 29th in the NFL, just ahead of the two New York juggernauts and the Washington Football Team.

Things haven’t gotten markedly better since the Bears banished Mitchell Trubisky to the bench. Nick Foles has waffled between decent and putrid depending on the drive, with an emphasis on putrid. His 83.3 passer rating ranks 27th in the league, which for context puts him just ahead of benched Washington quarterback Dwayne Haskins (80.3). Or if you prefer adjusted QBR as your metric, his 48.7 is 28th in the league — just ahead of Sam Darnold (39.4). Chicago’s offensive line has grown leaky in recent weeks as well, permitting Foles to be sacked 12 times during their three-game losing streak.

And if your next question is whether the Bears’ running game can maybe help take some of the pressure off Foles and perhaps bail out the offense, you clearly haven’t been paying attention. The Bears rank last in the NFL in rushing, averaging 82.3 yards per game. Moreover, their starting running back — the disappointing David Montgomery — sustained a concussion last week and might not be ready for Monday’s game. It’s more likely the Bears will roll with some form of a committee featuring Ryan Nall, old friend Cordarrelle Patterson and maybe Lamar Miller, if they promote him from the practice squad. Yes, that Lamar Miller. He’s still around.

You see, the Vikings’ patchwork defense doesn’t necessarily need to be great to carry them to a win against these Bears. They just need to do what pretty much every other defense has been able to do against them this season. And given the spark they showed the past two weeks against their other NFC North foes – both of which had better offenses – some Vikings defensive highlights should almost be expected.

Surely, Mike Zimmer can out-fox Matt Nagy.

If Cousins and Cook put a few scoring drives together and the special teams get their act together, the Vikings defense should be able to do the rest and perpetuate the Bears’ offensive incompetence.

A rare win in Chicago could very well be the result.

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