Locks
NFL – Packers -6.5 vs. Rams (-110):
If I’m being honest, I love this even more in a tease spot for the Green Bay Packers because I think they’ll win this game for sure against the weakest remaining playoff team in the NFC. They should be able to win this one by a touchdown or more given that Aaron Rodgers is absolutely rolling right now, and they have already proved the cold doesn’t affect them.
The Los Angeles Rams are well-coached, and if Jared Goff plays well there’s always a chance they can surprise people, but I don’t see it happening. Rodgers and Co. will look to make a statement early in this one on his quest for a second Super Bowl.
NCAA Basketball – Kentucky @ Auburn -1.5 (-110):
I was surprised to see this line open with Kentucky as a -1.5 favorite. This Wildcats team just looks broken, especially after a 20-point home loss to a depleted Alabama team, the worst of the Coach Cal era. It seems sharp bettors noticed the wrong team was favored here, as early money drove the line through zero, and Auburn is a short favorite now.
They have been a completely different team with Sharife Cooper making his college debut two games ago. Auburn has been playing at one of the fastest paces in the country with him running the point, and they showed what they can do by dismantling Georgia on Thursday. This is more of a gut play than anything, but the smart money sees what this Auburn team can be with Cooper and I’m happy to be on the same side in this spot.
NCAA Basketball – Western Carolina @ Mercer -6 (-110):
As our podcast crew likes to say, Happy Mercer Day everyone! The Bears have been disappointing lately, but this looks like a great spot for them to get back on track. Western Carolina has needed overtime in four of their five D1 wins this season, all against low-quality competition.
Despite their soft schedule, the Catamounts are 249th in defensive efficiency, and a Mercer team that’s 57th in offensive efficiency will have no trouble running this score up. After back-to-back 3-point conference road losses against the top teams in the SoCon, Mercer will be looking to take out some frustration.
This is a bad spot for Western Carolina to come back from a COVID hiatus — the Bears roll here.
NCAA Basketball – Washington @ UCLA -15 (-110):
Let’s keep fading this awful Washington team that looks like they just want the season to be over. This is really a case of two teams headed in opposite directions, as the Huskies keep losing Pac-12 games by huge numbers and the Bruins look like they’ve figured out how to play without injured star guard Chris Smith.
The ATS records couldn’t be more disparate either, as UCLA is 9-3 versus the number this season while the Huskies are an abysmal 2-9 and haven’t covered in a month. I also think each team’s last game, a 30-point UCLA win and 27-point Washington loss, are more emblematic of where these teams are as opposed to signs of mean regression to come.
The way these teams are playing this should be a 20 point spread, so I’ll happily lay 15 with the Bruins.
NCAA Basketball – Baylor -4.5 @ Texas Tech (-110):
I love this Baylor team in a Big 12 that in my opinion has no one else to compete with them atop the conference. Texas Tech is coming off of a big comeback win at Texas with Mac McClung coming up big in the final seconds, but this Baylor team won’t collapse in the same way as that Texas team did.
I’m going with my gut and taking Baylor to handle business by 5-plus in this one as they try to stay undefeated.
NFL – Bills -2 vs. Ravens (-110):
This pick is 100% me going with my gut. The Buffalo Bills have been trending in the right direction for quite some time now and after a mediocre performance against the Indianapolis Colts last week, I expect them to pick it up against the Baltimore Ravens today. This Bills’ receiving core is incredible with Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley playing out of their minds alongside their star quarterback.
Baltimore’s resurgence, however, has made this spread small enough for me to jump in on Buffalo. Although I respect the Ravens a ton, they have some key injuries along with playoff Lamar to deal with so I’m rolling with the Bills Mafia.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – Belmont -5.5 @ Jacksonville St. (-110):
I missed out on Belmont in their last game on Thursday, thinking they were laying too many points on the road. It was a missed opportunity as the Bruins built a 29-point lead and covered the 13 point number with ease. It’s a trend now, as Belmont owns a 4-0-1 ATS record as the visitor, part of their 9-3-1 overall record against the number.
Belmont looks to be in their usual mid-season groove and is definitely not a team I want to step in front of right now, shooting 49.3% from the field and ranking 28th in offensive efficiency. Jacksonville St. looked for a moment like they would challenge in the Ohio Valley this season, but they’ve become too reliant on shooting 3s and will sacrifice a lot of possessions against this high-scoring Belmont team.
This is a short price, so I’m rolling with the hot team.
NCAA Basketball – Michigan/Minnesota Over 147 (-110):
If there were fans in the stands, Minnesota’s vastly different performances at home versus on the road would make more sense. Regardless, there’s definitely something to their offensive output as the Gophers average 82.9 PPG in home games against power conference teams, but just 63 as the visitor.
That bad offense was on display against Michigan 10 days ago as the Gophers put up only 57 and that game finished eight points below the total. This total is a point lower, and I think Michigan does their part as they did in the first game — this is, after all, the 10th best offensive efficiency team in the country. If they do, and if Minnesota gets their usual 23% home scoring increase, then this game easily goes over the total, so I’ll count on those trends here.
Tiny Nick is 102-56 ATS (+45.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
