NFL (0.5 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN
This leg is really simple for me and it’s because the Baltimore Ravens aren’t losing this game to a hobbled Indianapolis Colts squad. Carson Wentz is seemingly spraining more ankles than he has, his offensive line is decimated, and Indianapolis will be without several key defensive contributors. Lamar Jackson should run all over that depleted defense, while a fierce Baltimore front has an easy time getting to the immobilized Wentz.
Don’t be fooled by the Colts winning handily last week. They’ve been beaten soundly by every team that has competent quarterback play. The Ravens are on a 4-0 home ATS run and can create separation in the bunched-up AFC North with a win. I think they get it easily and this teased number makes for plenty of value.
I went back and forth a bit on which way to tease the total, as the Ravens are averaging 34.3 PPG in that 4-0 home ATS stretch. But ultimately I think this becomes a lower-scoring affair with the Ravens and thus the clock running all night long. Baltimore can control this game on the ground with Jackson running the ball against the weakened Colts defense.
Meanwhile, I just don’t see Indy being able to protect Wentz enough for them to throw the ball effectively, and a heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor will further shorten this game. These teams have combined to go 6-2 under this teased total on the season, and I see another coming tonight in a run-heavy game.
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 398-305 ATS (+86.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.