Locks
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Michigan State -3 @ Purdue (-110): 2:30 PM CT on ABC
This is the shortest spread involving the top-4 teams in this week’s CFP rankings, and by far the most bettable. The easy read here is to assume Michigan State is due for a letdown after their huge comeback win over Michigan last week, but I don’t think it’s that simple.
Purdue certainly has the credentials of a giant killer as they have the most all-time wins over AP top-5 teams while being unranked, plus Jeff Brohm as an underdog is a seriously good bet. But a sneaky angle is that Purdue has not been good at getting underdog wins in consecutive weeks, and they just won outright at Nebraska last week as 7.5 point dogs. Let’s recall their last game off a big road underdog win: knocking off Iowa 3 weeks ago only to get crushed by Wisconsin the next week.
The conventional wisdom here is too conventional and easy for me to buy into, and as I mentioned last week this Sparty team just has some kind of magic swirling around it. They also have more talent, including Heisman hopeful Kenneth Walker III, and I think that earns them another win here and cover of a short number.
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Middle Tennessee @ Western Kentucky -17 (-110): 2:30 PM CT on STADIUM
The potential for Bailey Zappe and this Western Kentucky offense is finally being realized against the bottom-feeders of Conference USA. They have really favorable matchup here to notch another lopsided win.
Middle Tennessee – despite only facing 3 teams with above-average passing attacks – ranks 85th in passing yards allowed, and surrendered 37 PPG against those 3 teams. Now they face the nation’s top passing offense and 8th highest-scoring team. Western Kentucky has been putting it on conference opponents, averaging 42 PPG and winning their past 3 by an average of 23.3 PPG. Zappe is at or near the top of every statistical category for passing, his favorite target Jerreth Sterns is nearly uncoverable, and they should put on another show for the home crowd here.
Western Kentucky has plenty of motivation here as they chase a C-USA title game berth. Their unstoppable offense will give a reality check to this Blue Raiders team that’s coming off consecutive games with opponents that are bottom-5 in passing yards. This one could get out of hand so I’m laying the points.
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Utah St/New Mexico St Over 71 (-110): 3:00 PM CT on FloSports
This is a massive total and those have like it have tended to stay under so far this season. But this game’s pace and lack of defense should make it one of the outliers.
Utah State is the fastest-paced team in the country, averaging 84 plays per game. Thanks to transfer QB Logan Bonner, all those plays have added up to USU ranking 14th in yards per game. Not to be outdone by too much, New Mexico State is 4th in plays per game at 81.6. An ugly start to the season has masked their offensive turnaround, with the Aggies figuring out enough to average 28.5 PPG their past 4 games.
With that fast of a pace in this one, defenses that rank 117th and 108th in yards allowed should struggle even more. Interestingly, both teams played Hawaii in their last game and both those games saw 82 points. It’s a tall task to get over this number, but there will be next to no defense played so I’m willing to take this over.
NCAA Football (1 Unit) USC @ Arizona State -9 (-110): 9:30 PM CT on ESPN
This is an important bounce back spot for Arizona State after they got caught sleeping against Washington State last week. With more bad news piling on for this USC program, the Sun Devils should have a fairly easy opportunity to get right.
ASU’s defense should bounce back in a big way with the USC passing game losing elite wide receiver Drake London for the season last week. The Sun Devils are not a team you want to be one-dimensional against with one of the best defensive lines in the country. The ASU offense should rebound nicely as well off their turnover-plagued loss last week since USC can’t stop anything, allowing 33.2 PPG their last 5 games.
This is an important spot for the Sun Devils to have any shot at the Pac-12 title game. If ASU has any pride they’ll roll by two touchdowns no problem in this game.
Degenerates
NCAA Football Wake Forest/North Carolina Over 77 (-110): 11:00 AM CT on ABC
Life is too short to bet the under, or at least that’s what over bettors will tell you. Despite the incredibly high total here, I can’t look at this game and take the under with a straight face. Both teams just want to throw the ball, have the weapons to do it at will, and lack the defense to stop it from being done to them.
North Carolina has had 35 or more points hung on them 5 times already this year, while Wake has not scored less than 35 all season. Last year’s meeting was a 102-point instant classic, and this one has the potential to do the same.
NCAA Football Baylor @ TCU +7 (-110): 2:30 PM CT on FOX
There are two big factors drawing me to side with TCU here. First off is that the Horned Frogs parted ways with longtime coach Gary Patterson this week. The fired-coach game angle is real, albeit not very quantifiable, and I think TCU gets up for this game against an in-state rival to show their support for Patterson. Secondly, the public loves Baylor here with 91% of tickets being written on the Bears. I’ll fade that level of public support any day.
NCAA Football Oklahoma State -3.5 @ West Virginia (-110): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN
With 6 straight covers after a slow start to the season, Oklahoma State owns the 2nd-best cover streak in the country. I really like how the spot sets up for them here too. The Cowboys control their own destiny in getting to the Big-12 title game and are not entirely out of the CFP picture either.
West Virginia finds itself in a potential letdown spot off a crazy win over Iowa State last week, and faces the toughest defense they’ve seen all season. The number makes this one tough, but I lean towards the Pokes to pull out another win and cover.
NCAA Football UNLV @ New Mexico -1.5 (-110): 6:00 PM on STADIUM
Last week I tried to show this ugly dog of a UNLV program some love at a big number and it ended up biting me. I’ve learned my lesson and certainly can’t back them at such a short number. A ludicrous but true statistic is that UNLV has only won 14 of its past 100 road games. With New Mexico essentially just needing to win this game I’ll gladly side with an 86% trend here.
Tiny Nick is 427-331 ATS (+85.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
