Locks
NBA (1 Unit) NY Knicks Team Total Over 109 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ABC
I’ve been on this as my favorite play the entire series, and that’s not changing here. I think the Knicks will play better tonight than Monday when they still managed to clear this total despite a rough 4th quarter. There was too much hype around that Game 3, MSG wasn’t itself, the officiating did the Knicks no favors, and you-know-who put a curse on them (I wish I was kidding, but seriously, look it up, everything he touches dies).
The Spurs playing better and making some three’s also helps either push or drag the Knicks towards this isolated total, and they’ve seemingly made some important adjustments. I mentioned on Monday that the Knicks in these playoffs have seen their scoring explode after the first couple games of a series, averaging 123.9 PPG in Game 3’s and later. Well it really ramps up in Game 4, with 130.8 PPG from that point forward, so expect this offense to be sharp tonight.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Jalen Brunson Over 2.5 Made Three’s (+110; Odds via Fanduel)
Brunson was finally much more efficient from deep, going 3-for-5 on Monday after shooting 4-for-17 in San Antonio. That home cooking should help again tonight, in a pivotal game where he’s bound to take over with a high shot volume, and this plus-juice price is impossible to pass up.
Extra Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Landry Shamet Alt Over 9.5 Points (+160; Odds via Fanduel)
That was a rough crash back to earth for Shamet on Monday night, going 1-for-8 from the floor as shooting regression finally got to him. You can’t argue with the minutes or usage though, and both are key to him getting over this first escalator of his points prop. I maintain that he’s a much better scorer at home, and one bad game isn’t going to scare me away from this sneaky play with a nice payout.
Double Extra Bonus Bets (0.25 Unit Each): Spurs Three-Point Props (Odds via Fanduel)
One of these days the Spurs will really start hitting their three’s, and that will spell trouble for the Knicks. As I mentioned on Monday, MSG has been a great place for visiting teams to splash triples all season, so the plus-juice prices on these high-volume San Antonio shooters are all worth playing in my opinion.
Devin Vassell Over 2.5 (+115)
Julian Champagnie Over 2.5 (+135)
Dylan Harper Over 1.5 (+130)
Stephon Castle Over 1.5 (+135)
De’Aaron Fox Over 1.5 (+140)
WNBA (0.75 Unit) LA Sparks Team Total Over 87.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on USA
The WNBA season is only 13 games old for the Seattle Storm, and they’ve benefited from getting to play 7 of their games against the bottom half of the offensive efficiency ranks. That’s why this team has seemingly good defensive metrics like ranking 5th in points allowed and 8th in defensive efficiency. But their other 6 games have seen them allow 89.7 PPG as the better offenses of the league have gone 4-2 over this total.
That includes Monday’s loss in Vegas where the Aces rolled up 101 points on them, which could be a sign of things to come for this overmatched Storm squad. If it is, then the Sparks will take full advantage with their excellent offense driven by Kelsey Plum. The WNBA’s second-leading scorer had only her second sub-20 point game of the year on Sunday and LA still scored 89 points. Remember that the Sparks can’t defend so opponents naturally push their team totals upwards, and that this being a Commissioner’s Cup game means running it up is encouraged, so I see the Sparks hanging another big number tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 17-18 (-2.59 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
