Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) NY Knicks Team Total Over 109 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ABC
I’ve been on New York’s team total in both games so far this series, and them coming up one bucket short both times has not felt great. But I’m not dissuaded, and there’s actually plenty of reason for optimism that they’ll see a big bump in scoring tonight. The Knicks score 3.2 PPG more at home this season, so right there is a significant increase to their baseline.
That’s thanks to them ranking 1st in offensive efficiency and 2nd in floor percentage at MSG, so a little home cooking will be a big boost to scoring. And they also now have two games under their belt to figure out what the Spurs defense is doing to them, and this is the point when they’ve gone nuclear in the past. The Knicks only averaged 112.3 PPG in Game 1’s and 2’s this postseason, but Game 3’s and beyond they’re putting up 123.9 PPG so if that trend continues they’ll clear this total easily tonight.
Bonus Bet (0.75 and 0.5 Unit) Landry Shamet Points Escalators Over 9.5 (+120) & Over 11.5 (+210; Odds via Fanduel)
I’m riding this all series, try and stop me. Shamet has seen his standard points prop get bumped up to 8.5 for tonight, making the first and second escalators even more reasonable to play. He’s cleared both of these alt lines in Games 1 and 2, getting a ton of minutes and shooting the lights out from deep. Shamet shoots it even better at home and averages 2.2 PPG more at MSG, so I think these juicy returns are well within reach tonight.
Extra Bonus Bets (0.25 Unit Each) Spurs 3-Point Props (Odds via Fanduel)
The Spurs are heavily criticized for some of their shooting choices with such a heavy reliance on the deep ball. But down 0-2 in the Finals is no time to change your basic philosophy, plus they’ll need three’s to drop in order to make any kind of comeback attempt. They’ve been stifled so far by the Knicks defense, which is 3rd in the league for 3-point percentage allowed on the road. But that falls apart at MSG where they’re just 22nd, along with allowing the 5th-most attempts and 4th-most makes. With that in mind, I’m looking at these names with plus-juice prices attached to finally knock down some triples for the Spurs.
Julian Champagnie Over 2.5 (+110)
Devin Vassell Over 2.5 (+110)
Stephon Castle Over 1.5 (+115)
De’Aaron Fox Over 1.5 (+125)
Dylan Harper Over 1.5 (+230)
MLB (0.75 Unit) Christopher Sanchez Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-105; Odds via Fanduel): 6:07 PM CT on MLB.TV
Sanchez had a horrible start on Wednesday when the Padres got him for one earned run. Yes, that’s horrible considering he’d gone the entire month of May without giving up any runs of any kind, but that doesn’t mean he can’t get right back to that form tonight. Sanchez is fully capable of dominating this Toronto lineup, one that is heavy with lefthanded bats which he’s only allowing a .145 average and .357 OPS. The Jays just aren’t good against lefties for that very reason, ranking 26th or worse in just about every key metric. So look for Sanchez to get back on the scoreless streak tonight, with a one run cushion to still cash this bet.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Alec Bohm Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115; Odds via Fanduel): 6:07 PM CT on MLB.TV
Bohm spent the weekend crushing White Sox pitching, which should be a good appetizer for him heading into this pitching matchup. Patrick Corbin Day isn’t what it used to be overall, but for Bohm it’s still a great day as he’s hitting .370 with a 1.137 OPS against the Toronto starter. Corbin has been worse at home this season, and he’s getting hit much more by righties like Bohm so I see this as the most favorable matchup for all Phillies hitters tonight. With 2.1 bases per game over his last 10, I think Bohm has the current form and history on his side to cash this juicy return.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 15-16 (-2.85 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
