Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Portland Trail Blazers @ Golden State Warriors -14.5 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN
It might be a little crazy to lay this many points, but it gets a lot less crazy when looking at the tough spot Portland finds itself in tonight.
Injuries will keep Blazers stars Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum out tonight, while several of their other significant contributors are also banged up and questionable to play. Portland was already the worst road team in the NBA without that litany of injuries, going 1-10 both ATS and straight up to start the season. They’re also 0-7 ATS as an underdog and will face a Warriors team that’s the best at covering as a home favorite at 11-3-1, while also beating the number by an average of 8.2 points.
Golden State is also winning their home games by an average 16.5 point margin and beat a fully-staffed Blazers squad by this number less than 2 weeks ago. Steph Curry semi-joked about making 16 3-pointers tonight to break the career record, and against this wounded Portland team anything is possible as the Warriors will roll here.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Wyoming @ Arizona -16 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on Pac12 Network
No disrespect to a Wyoming team that’s playing extremely well and should challenge in the Mountain West, but Arizona is simply a freight train right now and I’ll be backing them until proven wrong.
While the Cowboys are one of the best shooting teams in the country, they’ve never seen a defense on the level they will tonight. Arizona’s massive and imposing front line has them 7th nationally in blocked shots and 2nd in rebounding. The Wildcats also have an excellent offense that’s 4th in offensive efficiency and assist-to-turnover ratio, which will be a big shock to the system for a Wyoming team that’s built its defensive numbers against a weak schedule.
Outstanding all-around basketball has allowed Arizona to roll their competition so far this season to the tune of a 32.6 point average margin of victory. That includes blowouts by more than this number against their two power-conference opponents. Tommy Lloyd has this team absolutely on fire, and I’ll count on that continuing here.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Tennessee Tech @ Western Carolina +2.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
While neither of these teams is terribly impressive, I just think the wrong side is favored here. Western Carolina is an excellent rebounding team, and that should negate Tennessee Tech’s usual advantage of relying on second-chance points.
The Catamounts are also shooting the lights out from deep this season behind guard Nicholas Robinson, who’s connecting at 45.3% from long range. As a team WCU takes the 5th-most attempts and makes them at the 50th-best rate, which is a good recipe at home against the 220th team in 3-point defense. While I’ll take the 2.5 points of insurance here, I do think WCU wins this outright.
NCAA Basketball Michigan State @ Minnesota +8 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on BTN
Alright Gophers, now it gets real. The early cupcake schedule got considerably more difficult with a visit to Mississippi State on Sunday, and this team proved themselves in a big upset. Michigan State is an even taller task though, as the Spartans are by far the toughest defense Minnesota has faced.
That being said, The Barn is still a tough place to play and will be rocking for this one. It was a far different team, but the Gophers did put a 25-point beating on MSU last season. While I’m not calling for an upset like that, I do see this as a lower-scoring game where 8 becomes a lot of points, so I’ll cautiously take them with the home team.
Tiny Nick is 479-366 ATS (+89.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
