Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Houston Rockets/Charlotte Hornets Over 235 (-110): 6:00 PM on Bally Sports SE
This game will be defined by a fast pace and disinterest on defense, and that should bring plenty of points for two teams that are excellent to the over.
Charlotte plays at the 2nd-fastest pace in the NBA, while Houston is right behind at 3rd-fastest. While their offenses are relatively inefficient, the fast style more than makes up for it. So does the fact that these are the two worst teams in the league from a defensive efficiency standpoint. It’s no surprise then that the Hornets are the best over team in the league, and these teams have a combined 14-5-1 record to the over in their past 20 games.
Over tickets have been cashing at a much higher rate in recent weeks, especially with so much roster disruption. Both of these squads are shorthanded tonight, and since neither cares much about defense in the first place, I see this being very high-scoring.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Utah Jazz/San Antonio Spurs Over 230 (-110): 7:30 PM CT on Bally Sports SW
I’m continuing to ride with the league-wide overs trend in this one, especially given how strong San Antonio has been to the over at home.
The Spurs come into this game with the 2nd-best record to the over in the NBA at 18-12-2, and are a ridiculous 13-2-1 at home, which is by far tops in the league. I also see the style of this game leading to lots of points, as the Spurs struggle to defend the three while Utah takes the most threes in the league, making them at the 4th-highest rate. Add in that San Antonio is on a back-to-back here, and it should lead to the Jazz having no trouble scoring against a weak defense.
These teams hit 254 points in their first meeting just 10 days ago, and while Donovan Mitchell will miss this game I’m confident enough scoring will happen without him. The Spurs are red hot, having poured in 282 points their past 2 games, so I’ll back the trend here with two very capable offenses.
Degenerates
NFL Miami Dolphins/New Orleans Saints Under 37.5 (-110): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN
This is likely to be one of the uglier Monday Night Football games of the season, and in that situation, I want the under. But this number has dropped like a rock on COVID news and the fact that fourth-round rookie Ian Book is starting at QB for the Saints, so it will have to be extremely ugly.
Nonetheless, these teams both struggle to move the ball, ranking in the bottom third for yards per game. With their dire QB situation, the Saints defense will need to play its absolute hardest to compensate. With a Dolphins defense on the other side, that’s only allowing 13.2 PPG during this 6-game win streak, points should be hard to come by tonight.
Tiny Nick is 503-389 ATS (+85.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
