Locks
NCAA Football (1 Unit) West Virginia vs. Minnesota -5 (-110): 9:15 PM CT on ESPN
I’m looking at the matchup and the motivation for this game, and both are giving an advantage to Minnesota.
Nine wins in a season is a rarity for Gopher football, and I see PJ Fleck having his team well-prepared and fired up to reach that tonight. West Virginia enters at 6-6, and teams with that record in the past have often had a lack of interest in their bowl game. The Mountaineers will also be without top running back Leddie Brown in this one, slowing down an offense that’s been highly inconsistent. I see them struggling to move the ball against an underrated Gopher defense, a unit that’s 4th nationally in yards allowed and 11th-best at forcing 3-and-outs.
Neither team is going to light up the scoreboard in this one, but Minnesota can better rely on their defense to get shorter fields and easier scores. I have the Gophers winning by more than a touchdown, so I’ll lay the points here.
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Texas Tech vs. Mississippi St -9.5 (-110): 5:45 PM on ESPN
Speaking of motivation in bowl games, all of it for this one exists solely in the grudge Mike Leach holds for Texas Tech.
Credit to the Liberty Bowl for scheduling this matchup, as Leach gets to face his former team for the first time. The resentment has been burning for years over how the current Mississippi State coach parted ways with the Red Raiders, and he’s made that clear leading up to this game. Leach has never been shy about running up scores in regular games, and I see this one getting ugly.
Texas Tech was the last bowl-eligible team from the Big 12, does not have the SEC-level talent that the Bulldogs do, and is also giving up the 13th-most pass yards per game. Leach will have his foot on the gas all game, and the master of the Air Raid should torch his old team in a blowout.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 @ New Orleans Pelicans (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports OH
Like most teams, the Cleveland Cavaliers have been hit hard by COVID absences. But it hasn’t mattered recently for the league’s best ATS team, and I see them continuing to roll tonight in New Orleans.
The Cavaliers sit at 25-6-2 ATS on the season with a +9.4 ATS plus/minus that’s also best in the league. They’ve also never lost as a favorite, going 9-0-1 ATS with a ridiculous +15.1 plus/minus to the number when laying points. Cleveland should keep that going tonight against a Pelicans team that won’t have Brandon Ingram available. New Orleans had logged wins in 5 of 6 against shorthanded opponents with Ingram carrying them but should struggle with him out nursing an Achilles injury.
I’m surprised this number is as low as it is after Cleveland’s 45-point win on Sunday. Their 2nd-rated defense should carry them to another win and cover here against a depleted Pelicans squad.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) NW St. @ Baylor -21 First Half (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Baylor has been excellent at covering massive numbers this season. But with conference play up next, I don’t see them putting a full effort into this one.
It’s not just any conference game up next, but a trip to undefeated and 8th-ranked Iowa State on Saturday. That should get Scott Drew and Baylor’s attention, and I see them taking it easy in the second half of tonight’s game in preparation. Fortunately for the Bears, Northwestern State is easy to push around early. Against their best opponents the Demons have been down at half by 30 at SMU, 35 at Houston, and 26 at LSU, none of whom are as explosive as Baylor.
The last 3 home cupcake games for Baylor have seen them lead at the break by 21.7 points, so this number seems fair from that perspective. But the situation calls for a full effort from the Bears early rather than late, and NW State has been so bad to start games that Baylor should easily jump out to a big lead.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Fresno State +4.5 @ Boise St (-110): 8:00 PM on STADIUM
A big key to this game for me is the health of Fresno guard Jemarl Baker who had been coming on strong before a knee injury. With 10 days of rest, I’m hopeful he’s back tonight, but Fresno might not need him to keep this one close.
Fresno has the size to create problems inside for a smaller Boise team, and can also grind this game to a halt with their snail’s pace of play. Both teams want to play slow and rely on their respective top-25 defenses, and that gives the underdog natural value. The Bulldogs have been a covering machine this season at 9-3 ATS, so I’ll count on them to be highly competitive here given their matchup advantages.
Tiny Nick is 503-391 ATS (+84.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
