Locks
NCAA Basketball – Miami-Ohio/Toledo Over 150.5: 6:00 PM CT
This is a perfect opportunity to bet an over where bad defense meets great offense.
Toledo is one of the highest scoring teams in the country (80.5 points per game), but they’re also the 9th most efficient offense in the country. Here the Rockets go up against a Miami defense that’s 313th in efficiency, and over their last three games are giving up an astronomical 1.219 points per possession, 4th most of any team over their last three.
The Redhawks offense is definitely serviceable (73rd in efficiency) and should be able to exploit the 197th ranked Toledo defense. The first meeting of these teams saw 171 total points, part of a 6-2 current run to the over for Miami and 9-2 over stretch for Toledo.
The Rockets are in need of a bounce back after two straight losses, and this opponent is perfect to get their elite offense rolling in a big way, so expect plenty of points.
NCAA Basketball – Austin Peay -6 @ SE Missouri St. (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
We cashed in the first matchup between these teams on Saturday, and I think the discount on this line presents enough value to go back to the well here.
Saturday’s game saw Austin Peay build a 22-point lead before winning by 15 and covering the 10.5 point line. I’m simply not a believer that a bad team being at home with limited fans warrants a line adjustment of 4-5 points, especially when they haven’t been competitive against quality teams.
SEMO’s home games against teams from the top half of the conference haven’t gone well, losing all of them by a minimum 12 points, and APSU is really heating up lately with covers in seven of their last eight games.
I’ll gladly take the discount here on the Governors, and as a bonus can cheer along with their fight song that includes the line “Let’s Go Peay!”
NBA – Nets/Suns Over 231 (-110): 9:30 PM CT on TNT
The Brooklyn Nets cannot be stopped on the defensive end at all and to along with that they also don’t play great defense. 231 isn’t a high number especially when you combine them with Devin Booker, Chris Paul and this up-and-coming Phoenix Suns team.
The Nets have put up 251 and 261 in their last two showings so I expect more if the same tonight on TNT.
Degenerates
No Degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 162-94 ATS (+64.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
