Locks
NCAA Basketball – Baylor -7 vs. Villanova (-110): 4:15 PM CT on CBS
I’m still suspicious of Villanova’s ability to overcome the loss of Collin Gillespie and don’t think this line is reflective enough of that. It’s tough to go against a coach like Jay Wright with this much time to prepare, but what has Villanova done to impress lately? Their tournament wins over Winthrop and North Texas seem to be hiding the fact that immediately after losing Gillespie they dropped games to Providence and Georgetown.
The step up in class to Baylor is immense, and the Bears seem to be finding that gear they’d been missing since their COVID pause. Villanova is stylistically similar to Wisconsin, a team Baylor had no trouble with on Sunday. But they are a terrible offensive rebounding team which is the one stat that kept Wisconsin somewhat close for a while.
Baylor has had trouble covering since restarting their season, but are 6-3 ATS with single digit spreads on the year, and I see them running away by double digits again here.
NCAA Basketball – Oral Roberts/Arkansas Over 158.5 (-110): 6:25 PM CT on TBS
We asked nicely for more Oral in this tournament on Sunday and we got it!
While I’m afraid the clock strikes midnight on the Golden Eagles here, there’s still money to be made on this total. These teams played on Dec. 20th, part of Oral’s rugged non-conference slate, and it was a game that saw 163 total points despite Max Abmas being held to just 11 – his lowest output of any D1 game this season.
It was also a game where Arkansas only shot 16% from deep against the 230th 3-point shooting defense, and I would expect that and the scoring of Abmas to revert towards the mean in this game. Both these teams play at incredibly fast tempos, and since ORU is essentially playing with house money I see them pushing their style to its limits, so expect a barn-burner here.
Bonus Pick: In a bit of lazy odds-making this spread of 11 points is the exact margin of the early season matchup. ORU actually led that game by 12 at one point, which is indicative of Arkansas’ tendency to dig themselves into holes and shows the Golden Eagles are not afraid of the Razorbacks. That’s too many points and I’m taking them with ORU here.
NCAA Basketball – Syracuse +6.5 vs Houston (-110): 8:55 PM CT on TBS
I might be a late arrival, but count me as on board the Syracuse bandwagon. I didn’t think much of this team all season but there’s no arguing that Jim Boeheim can coach in March; let’s not forget he took Syracuse to the Final Four in 2016 as an 11-seed.
I’m just really suspicious of this Houston team that had no business beating Rutgers on Sunday. The health of Houston guard Dejon Jarreau, said to be 75% at best, will be a huge factor here as he would be the main facilitator against the Syracuse zone that’s so tough to prepare for and execute against.
The biggest key to this game might be rebounding though. If Syracuse can limit the 3rd best offensive rebounding team, their defense should frustrate Houston’s already cold shooters into plenty of misses and keep them close with a chance to win outright. I’m personally going to take a small shot on Syracuse with the moneyline, but I definitely recommend taking this many points in a game that has all the makings of a toss-up.
NBA – Mavs/Pelicans Over 228.5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT
As I’ve said a few times now, when two teams on my “overs” list square off and the number is manageable, I’m taking the over.
The key to this one is whether or not Luka Doncic plays. If Luka and Zion Williamson both play, the pace and the offensive efficiency for both teams rises rapidly. I’m expecting everyone to be ready to go after Luka took last night off, but keep an eye on the injury report being that both of these teams are on the second half of a back-to-back.
With Luka in the lineup Dallas has scored 119-plus points in three straight games, and we all know how fast the young Pelicans play by now. As long as the total comes in below 230, lock in the over and hope for some points.
Degenerates
No Degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 206-130 ATS (+67.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
