Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Brady Singer Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:10 PM on MLB.TV
Singer had about a month-long stretch where he was far outperforming his true self, and it was getting scary. But a game of 5 earned runs on 9 hits last Sunday probably signals the return of the version everyone should be used to seeing. I’m looking for that to continue here, and taking advantage of a number that’s held down by that recent overperformance.
As far as batting average goes, this Baltimore team with its high-priced and underperforming lineup is only about league average against righties like Singer. But they’re top-10 in advanced metrics, and simply have too much talent not to rack up the base knocks against a pitcher on Singer’s level.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Jack Perkins Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+115; Odds via Fanduel): 8:40 PM CT on MLB.TV
Perkins as a starter just isn’t going well. He was thrust into the rotation at the beginning of June, and ended the month with a 6.65 ERA. Home is not helpful for him either, as all three of his home starts have seen him give up at least 3 earned runs. So being back at the Triple-A park tonight that’s so hitter-friendly should result in another game of giving up plenty of runs.
Having to face the red-hot Marlins will make it even tougher on the young righty, as Miami has been climbing the rankings offensively. The Fish are now 8th in the league for weighted runs created against righthanded pitching, and this extremely talented lineup should jump on Perkins early and often.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Olivia Miles Over 18.5 Points (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on ION
I was hoping for Napheesa Collier to come back for this game, pulling attention away from Miles both on the court and in the prop market. But that return has been pushed back again, so the outstanding rookie will just have to keep up the torrid pace she’s on. In her past 11 games, Miles is 9-2 over this point total while averaging 21.2 points per game.
She also tends to step up for the big games, and that’s what this is against the Commissioner’s Cup winner, a fraudulent title if you ask me. The Liberty don’t have the perimeter defense needed to slow down a player like Miles who can score from anywhere, and have been victimized by dominant lead guards all season. I think we see another big night out of the rookie as she continues to put this team on her back in the absence of Collier.
WNBA (1 Unit) Jackie Young Over 19.5 Points (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on ION
The spread and total in this game are moving like the market expects A’ja Wilson to miss another game with her leg injury. That’s nothing but good news for backers of Jackie Young, who has been absolutely nuclear both with and without Wilson in the lineup. The past 6 games for Young have seen her average 23.2 points per game while going 5-1 over this prop total.
That includes going off for 28 against this Sky team on Sunday, and for 31 on Tuesday when Wilson had to sit out. She’s shooting 57.5% from the field during this stretch, and if her scoring role is expanded with Wilson out, there’s a very easy path to 20-plus points against a terrible Chicago defense.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 9-12 (-1.76 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
