Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Paul Skenes Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+115; Odds via Fanduel): 5:45 PM CT on MLB.TV
I’m getting drawn in by the plus money price here, but I think Skenes has a good situation here tonight. We’re definitely not seeing the original version of the Pirates righty, as struggles have been far too common for him this season, but he can still lock in and rack up strikeouts when he needs to. I think some of those struggles have impacted the lines on props like this, holding it down just slightly enough to make it a worthwhile play.
One of those struggle games came the last time he faced the Phillies, giving up 5 runs and striking out 7 in an outing that kicked off this 8-game losing streak for Pittsburgh when he takes the mound. But it’s a Phillies squad that has the 6th-highest K-rate in baseball against righties this season, and since that game against Skenes on May 17th, they’ve struck out at the 2nd-highest rate overall. If Skenes can make this a pitcher’s duel against Zach Wheeler and stay in the game longer to help an overworked bullpen, I think he has the opportunity needed to cash this plus-juice return.
MLB (0.5 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+158; Odds via Caesars)
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers (-165): 7:00 PM CT on MLB.TV
This one is based on principle. The Brewers tend to own and abuse certain NL Central teams, the victim for a long time being Pittsburgh, but that has changed recently. Now Cincinnati is the team getting run through by this exceedingly well-run organization, with Milwaukee leading the season series 5-0 and going 45-18 straight up since the start of the 2022 season.
The Brewers actually have a tougher matchup today against Andrew Abbott, which is why I’m using this as a parlay piece instead of laying the 1.5 runs. But since Christian Yelich and William Contreras returned this Brewers offense is no longer a liability, and I think the league’s second-best team grabs another win today.
Miami Marlins (-165) @ Colorado Rockies: 7:40 PM CT on MLB.TV
The league is finally figuring out why local Minnesota kid Max Meyer was such an elite prospect. The Marlins are 10-1 in the past 11 starts from the Woodbury native, and today he should add on to that in an easy matchup for Miami. It was a great June for the Marlins overall as this team surged from 8 games under .500 to 6 games above during the month, with their hitting really rounding into form.
They can keep that going today without much problem against the awful Kyle Freeland, who owns a 6.75 ERA at Coors, and is the worst starter Miami faces in this series after already posting 10 and 14 runs the past two nights. With Meyer and a top-5 bullpen to keep the Colorado bats at bay, I think the Fish cruise to cash this parlay.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 11-11 (-0.54 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
