Locks
NBA – Mavericks/Heat over 215.5 (-110): 7:00 PM on Bally Sports SUN
Yesterday we highlighted an underappreciated offense with the New York Knicks, who proceeded to score 118 points en route to cashing the over. Today it’s the Miami Heat in that same role, ramping up their own offensive production as they’ve logged six straight overs.
Their offensive efficiency metrics in the last three games are off the charts and should continue to thrive against a Dallas Mavericks team that’s only 19th in defensive rating. I’m also counting on positive regression from the Mavs after a putrid shooting performance their last time out.
What intrigues me most about this number is it’s considerably higher than the typical total for Heat games and seems high given the previous meeting between these two finished with only 176 points. That tells me the books are preparing for a higher-scoring affair, and the number still rose more than a point despite solid two-way action. The line and smart money are sending you a message here: take the over.
NBA – Warriors/Pelicans over 235 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports N.O.
This is a pretty tough total to handicap because the trends of both teams are telling the opposite story. The New Orleans Pelicans are one of the best over teams in the NBA, both overall and in situational spots that apply to this game such as home team, laying points, and equal rest.
Well, take all of those, reverse them, and the Golden State Warriors are one of the stronger under teams in those situations, so something has to give. I like the over here though because these teams find themselves in a unique spot of running it back with last night’s matchup. That game reached 231 points despite an abysmal shooting performance from the Pelicans, particularly from deep, and some positive regression from them can easily find us an extra 5 points.
The pace and shooting metrics are all there with these teams, so factoring in no rest, a red-hot Steph Curry, and a Pelicans offense looking to redeem itself I see more scoring than last night. Check for stars resting on the back-to-back, but both teams are fighting for play-in positioning so everyone should be playing and filling it up in this one.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 241-155 ATS (+76.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
