Locks
NBA – Hawks +8 (-110) @ Bucks: 7:30 PM CT on TNT
I really don’t think the market has an appreciation yet for this Atlanta Hawks team and the run they’ve been on since Nate McMillan took over as head coach. They’ve had the best record in the Eastern Conference since McMillan took the reins in March, and we’ve all seen what Trae Young and the Hawks have done in these playoffs.
Yes, the situational spot says the Milwaukee Bucks will bounce back in this game as the higher-seeded home team. Yes, the Hawks had rough performances in their previous Game 2s on the road. But I don’t trust Milwaukee and their clueless coaching staff to make the right adjustments for this Game 2 that would create such a wide margin of victory.
However, I see the Bucks getting into their desperation mode of slower and more physical play like they did against the Brooklyn Nets, a style that led to some very close games. The Hawks seem to never be out of a game, they look like a bad matchup for this Bucks team, and this is a lot of points to have in my back pocket, so I’m taking them.
MLB – Nationals +1.5 (-110) @ Marlins: 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports FL
I just think the wrong team is favored here with the direction that these clubs are headed. The Washington Nationals are finally starting to live up to preseason expectations after a rough couple of opening months. They are winners of 10 of their last 11 games including three straight as road dogs.
I’m not the biggest fan of Jon Lester, whose best days are well behind him. But he’s had an excellent June with a 2.61 ERA, and Washington has won three of his last four starts. I have confidence that the Nats bats can get to Miami Marlins starter Pablo Lopez, who tends to struggle against power lineups like Washington’s.
The Marlins are also just 3-5 in his home starts this season, and the team has really fallen off lately with a 2-8 record in their last 10 games and an average of 1.5 runs per game in those eight losses. The market hasn’t quite caught up to the turnaround for the Nationals yet, so with a nice plus-juice moneyline and a 1.5 run cushion here, I’ll count on them to continue their run.
Degenerates
MLB Baseball 2-Team Parlay (+170)
Astros -1.5 (-160) @ Tigers: 6:10 PM on Bally Sports Detroit
After last night’s 12-3 pasting of the Detroit Tigers, the red-hot Houston Astros have now pushed their season-long trend of run line wins to 41 of their 47 victories. That’s likely to continue tonight against the overmatched Tigers who are rolling out Wily Peralta as their starter due to a lack of options.
The Astros would put up runs against Cy Young himself at this point, averaging 8.4 runs per game over their 11-game winning streak. With Framber Valdez getting the start the Tigers should get shut down again, as Valdez has only allowed five runs in his four June starts, the last three of which have been – you guessed it – run line wins for the Astros.
Books are adapting in a big way, juicing this to a heavy favorite, so I’ll tie it to this next leg for a plus-money return.
Diamondbacks @ Padres -1.5 (-145): 9:10 PM CT on Bally Sports San Diego
Looking only at the season series between these teams might give you the impression that they’re fairly evenly matched. But they haven’t played since late April, and in the two months since their last meeting, the Arizona Diamondbacks have won nine total games.
I usually have a rule against laying the run line on a home team, but the futility on display from Arizona right now creates an exception to that rule. The San Diego Padres have shaken off a 4-13 stretch to sweep two straight home series, with run line victories in 5 of the 7 games, and have won by two-plus runs in 35 of their 45 wins this season.
I also like that Chris Paddack, who has held left-handed hitters to a .217 average and .594 OPS, gets the start tonight against a Diamondbacks lineup full of lefty batters. The Padres should continue to roll against the worst team in baseball, so I’ll tie their run line into this parlay and look for a nice plus return.
Tiny Nick is 308-205 ATS (+87.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
