Locks
NBA – Bucks/Hawks Under 219 (-110): 7:30 PM CT on TNT
All I’m really looking at here is what should be a decrease in offensive production from some of the top offensive producers on both teams in this game.
It starts first and foremost with Trae Young, who has a bone bruise in his foot and will lack a lot of the quickness that makes him such a dynamic scorer. If Young plays reduced minutes as a result that has a major impact on scoring, as the Atlanta Hawks have a 21-point lower offensive rating and 15-point better defensive rating with Ice Trae off the court.
The injury issues continue with Bogdan Bogdanovic, whose injured knee has limited a 47.3% shooter to just 28.5% and 20 total points in the conference finals. To a limited extent it even includes Giannis Antetokounmpo who is dealing with a calf injury. While I fully expect all three to play, limited effectiveness from such important players has a significant impact on the total.
I’d also add in that “Home” Khris Middleton made an appearance on the road in Atlanta for Game 3 with 38 points – an unusual event and candidate for regression that would hold scoring down even more.
This series has averaged 100.8 possessions per game, gotten progressively slower in each game, and scoring has gone down in each as a result. Add in these key injury impacts, and I don’t see how this game gets over a fairly moderate total here.
MLB – Royals @ Red Sox -1.5 (-110): 6:10 PM CT on NESN
I just can’t pass up the standard juice on this run line given the mismatch I’m seeing in this game. The overall moneyline and thus the run line are being held down because of Boston Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta’s recent starts, where the Sox have lost four of five games.
But the issue has been run support, with Boston only scoring 11 runs over those five games. I don’t see that being a problem tonight against Kansas City Royals starter Brad Keller who has a 9.30 ERA in his last four starts, all run line losses where the Royals have a minus-25 run differential.
One of those was against these Red Sox, where Boston logged an easy 7-1 victory in Kansas City. The powerful Boston lineup should have another easy time tonight, especially in Fenway Park. If Pivetta can limit the inconsistent Royals lineup, this should be another comfortable win for the Sox.
MLB – Diamondbacks Team Total Over 3.5 (-110): 7:15 PM CT on Bally Sports Midwest
Hold on a second, are you talking about *that* Arizona Diamondbacks team?
Yes, yes I am, which is a testament to just how bad Carlos Martinez has been for the St. Louis Cardinals recently. Martinez is forced to stay in the rotation due to limited options after the Cards lost Jack Flaherty, and the results just can’t get much worse. He has posted a 13.73 ERA in 5 June starts, with the opposing teams scoring an average of 8.6 runs in those games.
When Martinez faced these Diamondbacks in late May they got over this team total, and in fact Arizona is 4-1 over this total against St. Louis this season with an average of 4.8 runs per game. The market perception of Arizona is holding this total down to where it has a lot of value against a struggling pitcher like Martinez, and I’ll look for those struggles to continue even against a bottom-feeding club like the Diamondbacks.
Degenerates
NBA Bonus Bet: Hawks Team Total Under 106.5
Poor offensive production from the Hawks has been the main factor in holding Games 2 and 3 under their respective totals while Atlanta stayed under this number in both contests. As I mentioned above, the Hawks are a completely different team without Trae Young on the floor, and significant injuries to the team’s first and third-leading scorers is going to catch up with them.
If Sunday’s 4th quarter is any indication, they’re in real trouble. The Hawks managed just 17 points when Young was first dealing with his injury. I just don’t see how they score effectively, so I’ll take Atlanta to go under this number once again.
MLB Bonus Bet: Red Sox Team Total Over 6
The Red Sox lead the AL East by virtue of that powerful lineup more than anything, scoring the third-most runs in the majors and getting 68.4% of that against right-handed pitching like they’ll see tonight.
They’re heating up and gaining confidence after sweeping the New York Yankees over the weekend, including giving Gerrit Cole his worst outing of the season. Boston has already gone over this total against Brad Keller once this season and met this exact number yesterday against Royals pitching, so I’ll count on them to run up the score again tonight.
MLB Bonus Bet: Diamondbacks Moneyline (+140)
Despite their well-documented futility over the last month-plus of baseball, the D-Backs are taking a lot of sharp money straight up in this game. If they can get to Martinez for all the reasons detailed above, they definitely have a good chance in this game overall.
Caleb Smith has pitched well since entering the starting rotation. He owns a 2.73 ERA and has given up just 5 hits and 1 run in 12 innings over his last two starts. If he can continue that against an extremely inconsistent Cardinals team, that makes this plus-money return worth a shot in my opinion.
Tiny Nick is 312-210 ATS (+86.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
