Locks
MLB – Washington Nationals Team Total Over 4 (-110): 6:05 PM on MASN
Somehow I get a sense that the Washington Nationals resent the fact that the San Diego Padres put 24 runs on them last night and might be out for a little revenge here. This might be the perfect opportunity against Padres starter Blake Snell, who has not looked good away from Petco Park. Snell owns a 9.09 ERA on the road this season along with a 2.14 WHIP and .313 on-base average against him.
If that wasn’t bad enough, he’s much worse against right-handed bats. The Nationals have plenty of those, which have made them the 3rd-best hitting team in MLB against lefties. Yesterday I said that this has been an incredibly high-scoring matchup, and the Nationals have done their part by averaging 8.4 runs per game against the Padres and going 4-0-1 over this total.
The Nats being slight underdogs in the game holds this number down, and I think their offense continues raking against San Diego and a terrible road pitcher.
MLB – Doubleheader GM2 Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-110) @ Detroit Tigers: 5:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North
The Minnesota Twins took the first step on a long road back to respectability by sweeping the Detroit Tigers in a four-game series before the All-Star break. They need to continue it here and should be able to with Kenta Maeda on the mound.
Maeda has really looked good against the Tigers this season, with a 1.64 ERA in two Minnesota victories. Detroit’s lineup has also combined for just a .125 career batting average against Maeda with a paltry .418 OPS. If the Twins offense can replicate the production from last week where they averaged 7.5 runs per game in that sweep, then they can cover this run line just like they did in all 4 of those games and 6 of the 9 against Detroit this season.
These doubleheaders can be tricky, but the Tigers represent the best opportunity the Twins have to somewhat right the ship, and I think they capitalize today.
NBA – Phoenix Suns -4 (-110) vs. Milwaukee Bucks: 8 PM CT on ABC
This is a good ol’ gut pick based on how these two teams have performed at home as opposed to on the road in this series. The home team is currently 4-0. I expect that to continue tonight with Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo not having their home crowd energy behind them that proved to be so important in Games 3 and 4.
Chris Paul is also coming off of two horrible performances in Milwaukee, so look for him to get right tonight en route to a Phoenix Game 5 win.
NBA – Jrue Holiday Under 18.5 Points (-110): 8 PM CT on ABC
We’re down to a best-of-three scenario in these NBA finals now, and it’s time for defense to be dialed to the max.
No player in this series is more heavily relied upon for their perimeter defense skills than Jrue Holiday, and he has his hands full with the Phoenix Suns backcourt. Whether he’s tasked tonight with slowing down Devin Booker or Chris Paul, both are looking to bounce back from shaky performances in Milwaukee, so Holiday will be asked to do a lot on the defensive end.
That would seemingly have an impact on how much he can and will be asked to contribute offensively. So with Holiday 3-1 to the under on this number including both games in Phoenix, plus the fact that ancillary players score less on the road, I’ll look for him to stay under this total again tonight.
Degenerates
No Degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 327-227 ATS (+85.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
