Locks
MLB Baseball (0.25 Unit) Houston Astros @ K.C. Royals First 5 Innings (+127) 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports KC
Yes the Kansas City Royals are bad, and yes the Houston Astros are good, but that doesn’t mean a favorable pitching matchup can’t pop up occasionally for the bad team.
That’s what I’m seeing here, and I want to exploit it in this first five innings play, as the Royals seem to have something with Carlos Hernandez in a starting role. In his three starts since joining the rotation, Hernandez has posted a 1.02 ERA and 0.85 WHIP against excellent lineups, and I think he can do it again here against the potent Astros bats. He’s likely to get some run support too as the Royals hitters have a career .348 average against Houston starter Jake Odorizzi, who has struggled on the road recently with a 10.03 ERA in his past 3 road starts.
I don’t have faith in the K.C. bullpen, which squandered an excellent start from Hernandez in his last game, so I’ll look for the Royals to at least grab an early lead and take advantage of this nice plus-juice return.
MLB Baseball (0.25 Unit) Pittsburgh Pirates (+240) @ L.A. Dodgers 9:10PM on SportsNet LA
I’m making this bet on principle, it’s as simple as that, and so are a lot of the sharp bettors out there.
It’s just a really tough spot for the Los Angeles Dodgers to be in, as they played late into last night, pasting the New York Mets on Sunday Night Baseball, and now travel across the country to play a normal start time game. They’re also making this a bullpen game, which is a white flag of sorts given the scheduling spot they’re in, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see other star players getting a day off too. With the deepest roster in baseball, it’s certainly possible for the Dodgers B-squad to beat the Pittsburgh Pirates, but it’s simply excessive for them to be as heavy of favorites as they are.
Pirates starter Steven Brault has been reasonably solid in his two starts this season, and the Dodgers are only 23rd in MLB for average against lefties. Sharp bettors recognized this outsized moneyline and jumped on Pittsburgh to drive it down, and with the situational spot, I’m inclined to agree that this big plus-juice return is worth a shot.
MLB Baseball (1 Unit) New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants -1.5 (-110) 8:45 PM CT on NBC Sports-BA
Speaking of rough scheduling spots, the New York Mets are in the exact same situation as their Sunday Night Baseball counterparts, except they have to face the best team in baseball.
The loser on Sunday nights has not fared well the next day this season in general – especially when they have to travel – and this imploding Mets team should be easy pickings for the San Francisco Giants. The Metropolitans only have 4 wins in their past 14 games, all against the bottom teams in their division, and 14 of their 18 losses after the All-Star break have been by two-plus runs. They’ll have to face Giants ace Kevin Gausman tonight who has settled down after a couple of rough outings and should hold down a Mets team only averaging 2.7 runs per game in their past 2 road series.
The Giants are hot, the Mets are not, and San Fran should roll when you factor in this tough scheduling spot.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 358-248 ATS (+90.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
