Locks
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Oklahoma @ Baylor -12 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2
Oklahoma has a couple of impressive wins this season, but Baylor is just on a different level from what they’ve seen.
These teams are fairly similar in their statistical profiles, with Oklahoma actually being the better shooting team. But that’s been compiled against mostly weak defenses, not the country’s 3rd-best team in defensive efficiency. It’s incredible, but somehow Baylor is better on defense this year than the championship team was last year. Combine that excellent defense with what is a massive advantage over the Sooners on the glass, and the Bears should be able to run away with this game.
Baylor has faced 5 power conference teams at home or on a neutral court, going 4-1 ATS with a 19.2 point average margin of victory. They also led by more than this number at Iowa State on Saturday before some late Hilton magic made it closer than it looked. The Bears are a machine, and while this number might be a little inflated, I simply can’t go against them in their Big12 home opener.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Florida St. @ Wake Forest -1.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ACC Network
This line is just too short with the Seminoles trading on brand recognition, and not enough appreciation for how Wake Forest matches up against them.
For several years Florida State was a team that frustrated opponents with size and length, but that script has been flipped on them this year. All of the four Seminoles losses this season have that common angle, and Wake Forest can easily replicate it here. The Deacons have a lot of interior strength with Dallas Walton and Khadim Sy, plus the length of versatile forward Jake LaRavia to cause matchup problems for FSU.
Wake has also been much better on the offensive end, with an offensive rating that’s 90 spots higher than the Seminoles. This is an important game for Wake in their ACC home opener after two close losses on the road, and I see them taking care of business here.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Air Force Team Total Under 56.5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on STADIUM
For people who will go on to fly planes, this Air Force team sure doesn’t do anything very fast. And even though Colorado State likes to get into high-scoring games at home, I just don’t see them allowing Air Force to get over this number.
The Falcons might actually do more to prevent themselves from getting over it, as they are 354th in the country with just 64.3 possessions per game. That is a glacially slow pace that’s actually even slower in road games, where they’re averaging just 50.2 PPG. Air Force also hasn’t cracked the 50-point threshold in their past 4 games overall.
Colorado State is an offensive juggernaut and that can cause some high-scoring games for them. But their defense has started to come around recently, and they’re actually just 171st in pace. That should all combine for another minimal output for Air Force here.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Providence +1 @ Marquette (-110): 8:00 PM CT on FS1
I’m not sure how Providence can still be flying under the radar like they are after compiling the most Quad 1 wins in the country to this point. They just keep getting it done and getting it done on the road as well. The Friars are also one of the best ATS teams in the country at 10-4, as well as 5-0 as an underdog.
Marquette looked impressive early in the season, but it’s started coming apart for them with 5 losses in the past 6 games, including 3 straight at home against quality opponents. They have flipped to the favorite from the opening line though, a concerning move in the time of COVID news. I’m monitoring player availability for this one, but I’m also confident that a healthy Friars team continues to roll here.
Tiny Nick is 512-395 ATS (+86.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
