Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Utah Jazz @ Minnesota Timberwolves -2.5 First Quarter (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
Did everyone see the Utah Jazz dismantle the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday, odds makers included? Good, because it’s artificially inflating their value here in a spot where a lot of different things should normalize. Let’s start with the Jazz, who pulled off a big upset that only served to hurt their lottery standing in the Victor Wembanyama chase. This team should return to tank mode in a hurry.
And the Timberwolves should help them get there, especially early on in this game. Their ability to start strong in games seems to have carried over from last season, where they were the top first-quarter scoring team, and third-best in average margin.
The Wolves also got a very off night from Anthony Edwards on Wednesday, so if he gets going early tonight it could be a runaway. The bottom line is this number is too short for a team that gets out of the gates like Minnesota does, and they should start fast again with another poor opponent in town.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Rudy Gobert Over 31 Points + Rebounds (-110)
I love a good revenge angle, and I’m confident Gobert will be in that kind of mood tonight against his former team. After putting up 23 points and 16 boards on Wednesday, it was apparent how much of a factor Stifle Tower can be for this team. That debut and the element of the opponent seem baked into this line, but it’s just not high enough for a player who’s in a great spot to go off tonight.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies/Houston Rockets Over 232 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SW
This is the highest total on the board today, and with good reason. Both teams should bounce back from poor shooting nights to open the season, particularly Memphis who struggled against a decent defense. The Grizzlies will not see a decent defense tonight, as that hasn’t been a high priority in Houston lately — plus the Rockets just allowed a 50% shooting night in their opener.
The pace needed should also be there, as these teams last season ranked third and fourth in possessions per game. There should also be a high volume of attempts from long range here, as Houston was also fourth in 3-point attempts last season, and Memphis just launched 50 from beyond the arc on Wednesday night. With smart money immediately hitting the over when this line opened, it tells me we’re in for a fast-paced and high-scoring game here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 904-752 ATS (+80.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
