Locks
NFL (0.5 Unit) Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Total Under 22.5 (-110): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN
I really think this game sets up as an under environment due to a lot of factors. Mostly it’s because there are two struggling offenses squaring off tonight, with Tampa ranking 17th and New Orleans 24th in offensive DVOA metrics. But we’re also into December now, and this is a divisional matchup in primetime. Divisional games have gone 32-20-1 to the under already this season, so there’s a strong trend supporting a low-scoring game.
But I’m looking at an even stronger trend with this isolated total, as the Buccaneers are 10-1 under their respective team total on the season. They’re also 10-1 under this specific total, with their past 7 games going under. And for whatever reason, this Saints team has given them plenty of trouble the past few seasons, with the Bucs averaging just 14.6 PPG across the past 5 regular season meetings. I don’t see much difference in tonight’s game, so I’m betting against Tampa’s ability to score effectively tonight.
Bonus Bets (0.5 Unit Each): Tom Brady Under 272.5 Passing Yards & Over 40.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
Yes, you read that right, one is an under play, and the other is an over. While they certainly hedge against each other, I think both are likely to hit in a game like this. I mentioned Tampa’s (and thus Brady’s) struggles against the Saints, with Tom only averaging 245.5 passing yards per game against New Orleans in those 5 games.
But the run game is almost non-existent for the Bucs at this point, and the short passing game has had to take its place. Brady has had to throw at a high volume even in games they’ve controlled, going over this attempts number 7 times in the past 9 games. The Bucs should theoretically be playing from ahead tonight, so I see Brady racking up high-percentage passes that don’t equate to a lot of yardage.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Indiana Pacers @ Golden State Warriors -6.5 First Half (-110): 9:00 PM CT on NBCS-Bay Area
The West Coast has not been the best coast for Indiana, as this current road trip has seen the Pacers go 1-4 both ATS and straight up. More importantly though, they’ve gone 0-5 against the first-half spread, and I see that trend continuing here. The Pacers have trailed at the break in all five of those games, with an average deficit of 8.6 points. That’s not terribly surprising for a team that hasn’t been great in first halves all season, as the Pacers are 23rd in scoring, 27th in points allowed, and 28th in average margin before halftime.
It only gets more difficult tonight on the second leg of a back-to-back against a red-hot Warriors team. Golden State has been dominant in home first halves, averaging a plus-13.5 average margin in their past 6 at Chase Center. Without Tyrese Haliburton available tonight due to injury, I don’t see how Indiana keeps up with the Warrior juggernaut early, so I’m laying the first half points.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 967-809 ATS (+86.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
